Global temperatures will most likely reach “unprecedented levels” in the next five yearsdriven by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and the natural phenomenon of El Niño.

This is stated in the reportAnnual to Decennial Global Climate Bulletin‘, produced by the United Kingdom Met Office, the main center of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for such forecasts.

It is a publication that is updated every year based on the knowledge of renowned climatologists and the best computer models of climate centers around the world, under the coordination of the WMO, a UN agency specialized in weather, climate And the water.

The report presents a summary of the temperature predictions made for the period between 2023 and 2027. Thus, there is a 66% probability that the global average annual surface temperature temporarily exceeds pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees for at least one of the next five years, thus exceeding the global warming limit set out in the Paris Agreement.

That probability that the Earth will reach 1.5 degrees of global warming for the first time in the next five years has increased steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero.

Thus, it was 10% between 2017 and 2021; that percentage rose to 50% between 2022 and 2026. It is now at 66% between 2023 and 2027, while sThere is only a 32% chance that the average of those five years will exceed the limit of 1.5 degrees.

Besides, there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record and exceed the heat record of 2016, when an exceptionally strong El Niño event occurred.

The probability that the five-year average for the period 2023-2027 will be higher than that of the last five years is also 98%. “These data do not mean that we will permanently exceed the level of 1.5 degrees provided for in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. Even so, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will exceed the 1.5 degree level temporarily and with increasing frequency,” said Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretary-General.

Taalas added: “An El Niño event is expected to set in in the coming months, exerting a warming effect. Added to climate change caused by human activities, it will raise global temperatures to unknown limits. This will have far-reaching implications for health, food safety, water management and the environment. We have to be prepared”.

Leon Hermanson, an expert scientist at the Met Office, stressed in this regard: “Global average temperatures are expected to continue to riseor, which will take us further and further away from the climate to which we are accustomed”.

In 2022, the global average temperature exceeded the average for the period between 1850 and 1900 by 1.15 degrees. The cooling effect exerted by La Niña conditions for much of the last three years temporarily halted the longer-term warming trend.

However, the La Niña episode ended last March and, according to forecasts, in the coming months characteristic conditions of an El Niño episode will be established, which normally increases global temperatures in the year following its formation, which in this case would be 2024.

For each year between 2023 and 2027, the annual global mean near-surface temperature is projected to be 1.1 to 1.8 higher than the 1850 to 1900 mean, which is used as a reference because it predates the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.

Furthermore, the Bulletin notes that Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991 to 2020 average, the temperature anomaly in that area of ​​the planet is projected to be more than triple the global average anomaly. Compared to the average from 1991 to 2020, there is a higher chance of rain forecast for the period from May to September between 2023 and 2027 in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, while conditions will be drier in the Amazon region and parts of Australia.

Greenhouse gases resulting from human activities not only cause an increase in global temperature, but also intensify warming and acidification of the oceans, melting sea ice and glaciers, and rising sea levels, as well as more extreme weather events.

The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to help all nations substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperature rise this century below 2°C. while efforts continue to limit it to 1.5ºC relative to pre-industrial levels in order to avoid or reduce harmful effects and related loss and damage.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that global warming of 1.5°C will exacerbate climate-related risks to which natural and human systems are currently exposed, albeit to a lesser extent than if global warming reaches 2°C.