Keys to the political trial against the president of Ecuador

The president of Ecuadorthe right-wing Guillermo Lasso, faces three possible scenarios in the context of a political trial against him: Being dismissed, dissolving the Congress or remain in office with a Legislative dominated by the left.

The unpopular president, 67, will face this Tuesday the second attempt by the unicameral Congress to remove him in almost a year, now on charges of alleged corruption.

In the first two of the four years for which he was elected, he has not reached an agreement with the predominant left in the Legislature, which has led to political instability reminiscent of that registered between 1997 and 2005, when three presidents were overthrown.

“Unfortunately, an indecisive president has led us to this, very soft, I would even say faint-hearted, like Lasso,” Constitutionalist and political analyst Rafael Oyarte told AFP.

Parliament requires 92 of the 137 votes to oust Lasso, in a chamber integrated with strong opposition currents: the movement related to former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), who lives in Belgium, and Pachakutik, political arm of the powerful indigenous sector.

Here are the three possible scenarios for Lasso in the impeachment trial:

Dismissal

The Assembly must gather the vote of two thirds of its members (92) to remove the president, which by law can be done in the case of crimes against the security of the State, corruption and genocide or disappearance of persons.

Lasso is accused of correísmo of an alleged embezzlement in the management of the state shipping company Flota Petrolera Ecuatoriana (Flopec). According to the indications, the president did not order the culmination of an agreement signed before he took office for the transport of crude oil with the international group Amazonas Tanker, despite the fact that he left losses of more than six million dollars.

Lasso, who proclaims innocence, will have to go to the plenary session of Congress this Tuesday to give his version and listen to the counterpart. If he fails to do so, he will be tried in absentia. It will then follow a voting process that could take several days.

In case of being removed, Lasso will be replaced by Vice President Alfredo Borrero, with whom he was elected jointly. The new president, who must complete the current four-year term, will present a short list to Congress for the appointment of vice president.

If censored, Lasso would become the second Ecuadorian president to be dismissed in impeachment after Juan de Dios Martínez (1932-1933) was dismissed in 1933.

dissolution of congress

Lasso has the constitutional option of dissolving Congress, once only and in the first three years of the administration, to make way for early general elections from which a ruler in charge of ending the current term would emerge.

That option, called “cross death”can decree it before the vote in the trial.

The president has indicated that he would appeal to the cause of obstruction of the execution of the National Development Plan, which does not require a prior ruling from the Constitutional Court, to dissolve Congress.

The law also allows him to do so due to a serious political crisis and internal commotion, and due to arrogation of functions.

“That is the best scenario for correísmo because in the next 45 days we would have elections”Oyarte maintained. This political current aspires to regain power despite the fact that its leader is sentenced in Ecuador to eight years in prison for corruption.

“The misnamed ‘cross death’ would be clearly irresponsible for the president. In other words, to avoid his dismissal, he remains in office for three or five more months, depending on whether or not there is a second presidential round, and hands over the presidential sash to someone from the left.”Oyarte added.

save yourself

To avoid impeachment, Lasso needs 46 supporters in Congress.

In June 2022, the Legislature gathered 80 of the 92 in a direct vote with the intention of removing him due to a serious political crisis amid strong indigenous protests over the high cost of living, which left several dead and hundreds injured.

On Sunday, the Congress had internal elections to rearm its highest administrative body and the opposition -majority although dispersed- captured the seven positions of that entity with up to 100 votes.

If he remains in office, the president, whose party has a dozen seats and adds a total of 25 with those of allies, will have to continue facing institutional instability.

“What is President Lasso going to do for the next two years? Because he will have to work with this Assembly, with a situation of a president who has broken all the bridges and channels of communication with the other parties ”Oyarte maintained.

Source: AFP