The proposal of the FIFA holding a World Cup every two years and changes to the Club World Cup could cost the major national soccer leagues and the UEFA about 8 billion euros ($ 9 billion) per season, for loss of television rights, commercial agreements and game days, according to a report commissioned by the leagues.
The increased frequency of international competitions, as well as the increase in international club matches, could lead to important changes in national leagues, such as reducing the number of teams, moving weekend games to weekdays and less. local games, according to the report.
The report, prepared by FTI consulting firms KPMG and Delta Partners and accessed by Reuters before its publication, predicts that, in addition to reducing club revenues, the measure would affect spectator interest in matches.
In addition, it would reduce advertisers’ interest in national soccer and increase pressure on players, which would harm the quality of the game, according to the report.
Gianni Infantino, President of the governing body of world football, he said that FIFA was studying the possibility of holding the World Cup every two years instead of the current four-year cycle.
Arsene Wenger, a former Arsenal manager and FIFA’s head of global development, has proposed a new schedule that would reduce the number of international breaks for qualifying matches, with one or two longer to compress the process.
Wenger suggests that the World Cups be held in alternate years, with continental championships such as the Euro and America’s Cup in between, and advocates mandatory rest periods to avoid exhaustion of players.
However, the idea has run into strong opposition from UEFA, which runs the popular and lucrative Champions League, and from national leagues such as the Italian Serie A, the Spanish League and the English Premier League, which boast a huge number of followers worldwide.
UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin has argued that a more frequent World Cup would dilute its value and hurt other competitions, and has threatened to lead a European boycott of an additional World Cup.
Wenger, in September, said: “So far, club football is 80%, nationals is 20% and I want to maintain that balance.”
FIFA has not responded to a Reuters request for comment, but has previously promised its own feasibility study.
A lot of risk
The report, which also includes the MLS leagues, Mexico, Japan and South Africa, as well as Europe’s Big Five, says that even the least disruptive options would cost them billions annually. The greatest impact would be on television revenues.
The study estimates that the world’s 40 biggest national leagues and UEFA club competitions, such as the Champions League, could lose up to € 5 billion per season on audiovisual deals alone, more than a third of what the leagues do. they win today in television rights.
The study estimates that leagues would lose more than 1,000 million euros a year in visual rights due to the decrease in the number of games, 1,750 million euros due to the shortening of the calendar and another 901 million due to changes in the programming of weekend games. .
Total audiovisual rights revenue generated by the leagues would drop from more than 14 billion euros to about 9 billion, according to the study.
Enders Analysis principal analyst François Godard said holding a biennial World Cup would be very risky.
“My concern is that at some point the demand will collapse. The risk of a sudden and dramatic drop is enormous if the main product (the national leagues) weakens, ”he declared.
“If you switch to this new model with a World Cup every two years and the games have to go from the weekend to the middle of the week and you have a shorter season overall and some players might not be available at some point, you weaken your core product. ”.
The report notes that business losses would amount to 2.16 billion euros per season, a decrease of approximately 25%, and that the negative impact on matchday revenue would cost clubs 1.2 billion euros, also a decrease. of about 25%.
Various scenarios were raised, but in all of them the leagues project that, starting in the 2024-2025 season, they would be forced to downsize to 18 teams and end their seasons in early May to conform to FIFA’s plans. The number of parties that could be suppressed is not clear.
The report will be presented at the Annual Assembly of the World League Forum next week, said Enrique Bonilla, president of the Forum and Liga MX.
“These plans go against the leagues, the clubs and the players,” Bonilla said.
The 2018 World Cup generated $ 5.37 billion in revenue for FIFA. Gross revenues from the 2021-2022 UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and UEFA European Conference League and UEFA Super Cup 2021 are estimated at € 3.5 billion.
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