The El Niño weather phenomenon could form during the May-July season, with more than a 90% chance that it will persist into the winter northern hemisphere, a US government meteorologist said Thursday.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Weather Service noted that a transition from neutral conditions could occur in the next two months.
The El Niño phenomenon is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, sometimes causing crop damage, flash flooding, or fires.
The World Meteorological Organization pointed out in early May that this meteorological phenomenon could contribute to the increase in global temperature.
“Regarding this phenomenon, there are indications that it will be strong and will occur in the middle of the season. This would imply that the monsoon may start on time, but with less than normal seasonal rainfall.said Brian Morris, agricultural meteorologist (Asia) for the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The CPC noted that “while at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) includes an 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño, up to a 55% (approximate) chance of an El strong child”.
Australia could see a drier and warmer start to winter after three years of wet and unpredictable weather, while India, the world’s second-biggest producer of wheat, rice and sugar, could see below-average rain due to the phenomenon.
Changes in sea temperatures, such as the Indian Ocean dipole – also known as the Indian Niño – could be positive, mitigating the impact of El Niños in India and boosting them in Southeast Asia, according to Morris.
Source: Reuters
Source: Gestion
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