Many questions remained in the air after the agitated Chilean electoral day.
One of them is how it is explained that the candidate with the greatest support in this first round (27.91% of the votes) has been the right-wing Jose Antonio Kast at a time when, supposedly, Chile had been turning to the left with an ongoing constituent process triggered by the social outbreak of October 2019, according to the BBC.
During the protests, a change was demanded to the prevailing neoliberal system in Chile, demanding reforms in the areas of pensions, health and education, among others.
As a way out of the crisis, it was agreed to change the Constitution created under the de facto government of Augusto Pinochet, which was ratified in a plebiscite where the “approval” was won by an overwhelming 78%.
And then, Chile elected the members of the assembly in charge of changing the Magna Carta, in elections marked by the defeat of the center-right, which was far from reaching the necessary third to influence its content.
Despite all the above, the candidate defending the legacy of Pinochet, in favor of maintaining several of the current Chilean social policies – such as the pension system – and reducing the participation of the State in the economy as much as possible, obtained the first majority in the first presidential round.
How do you explain this apparent paradox (if there is one)?
Cross braces
According to several of the analysts consulted by BBC Mundo, the first thing to take into account is that not all the people who supported a change to the Constitution or the protests of the social outbreak feel necessarily interpreted by the ideas of the left.
“Many people believed that 80% of the approval was from the left and the data never showed that. We always warned that half were probably on the right ”, explains Javier Sajuria, an academic at the Queen Mary University of London.
“It was not a uniform bloc but one of gigantic diversity, with people from the center-left and also from the center-right who do not want an ultra-progressive constitution,” adds the Chilean political scientist.
A similar opinion shares Pamela Figueroa, professor of Political Science at the University of Santiago de Chile.
“There was a large majority that approved the idea that social unrest and the crisis of legitimacy and trust could be resolved through a constituent process. But that does not mean that all that majority were clear about what this project of change could be, “he says.
In this way, there are those who believe that there is no paradox as such.
“There is no paradox here. An approved voter could perfectly support Kast, ”electoral analyst Kenneth Bunker tells BBC Mundo.
On the other hand, experts agree that the 22% of Chileans who voted rejection in the plebiscite to change the Magna Carta should not be underestimated, who for the most part did not support the protests and would have chosen to support the radical right candidate .
“At first it was clear that it seemed like an inconsistency. How do we go from the 80% of the country that voted in favor of progressivism, of change, to Kast, such a conservative candidate and in favor of the status quo? But the truth is that the 30% that this candidate achieved is not very different from the 20% that voted rejection, ”says Bunker.
Changes at any cost?
The post-pandemic and outbreak social context, with an economy in crisis, could also have played an interesting role in supporting Kast.
Although this candidate began the presidential race with timid support, his popularity grew under the slogan of establishing “order and progress”, and a strong hand against insecurity, drug trafficking and migration.
And that, it seems, made sense to many Chileans despite the fact that several wanted (and probably still want) changes.
“We know that many people want change but not at any cost. That’s the point, ”says Bunker.
“And in the last two years a lot has happened in Chile, there has been a lot of violence, there is the installation of crime, there is a feeling of insecurity. So yes, they want changes but only to the extent that they come with order. And Kast speaks very well to that, “he adds.
Pamela Figueroa, for her part, affirms that, although the constituent convention continues to have broad citizen support, “there is a lot of misinformation and attacks” on this assembly that has generated fear.
“There is a campaign against him that appeals to fear of possible changes. And we know that fear mobilizes towards the poles ”, he says.
“It seems to me that Kast, with his conservative discourse, looking to the past, summons a group of people who do not necessarily believe that changes should be made in a radical way,” he says.
Sajuria, meanwhile, affirms that “people are exhausted from uncertainty, from being insecure, vulnerable in economic terms. More than a paradox, what happens is that the political process is hitting Chile very hard ”.
Low vote
Since voluntary voting began to rule in 2012, most elections in Chile – both presidential, municipal and others – have been characterized by a low number of voters.
In this election, 47% of the electoral roll voted, similar to the first rounds of 2013 and 2017.
For the plebiscite for the new Constitution, 51% voted, which was described as “historic.”
“We know that young people and the most vulnerable sectors went to vote en masse for the plebiscite (for the new Constitution). Now we don’t know, ”says Bunker.
In an interview with the BBC, the political analyst and pollster Marta Lagos went further and said that in these elections there was a “call problem” that opened the doors to the right-wing standard-bearer.
“As few people voted, the right was able to summon more people than the left, which did not have the ability to capitalize on the protest vote against politics. It is not that those votes do not exist, that people are not dissatisfied or that they will not go out on the street again. The point is that they don’t vote, ”he said.
In this way, analysts agree that Gabriel Boric’s ability to summon his voters will be key for the second round.
As well as his speech that, in view of Kast’s popularity, should try to appeal to change but with order.
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