Ecuador: Guillermo Lasso faces three scenarios before a vacancy request

The political trial of censorship of the president of Ecuador, William Lassofaces its final stretch with three possible outcomes after the stage of presentation of evidence and witnesses by the opposition and the president’s defense, accused of an alleged crime of embezzlement (embezzlement), concluded on Wednesday.

Now the Oversight Commission of the National Assembly (Parliament) has ten days to prepare a report that will not be binding with a view to the second and final stage of the process, which will take place in plenary session, where the final decision on the continuity or not of the head of state.

From the opposition sectors that promote impeachment, it is pointed out that the plenary vote will probably take place in mid-May or in the second fortnight, since it coincides with the replacement that must take place on May 14 in the Legislative board of directors, opposition majority.

At this point, the impeachment process envisions three possible endings, three scenarios that will mark the political future of Ecuador in the following months:

1.- Lasso continues

The first scenario is that the opposition does not achieve the 92 votes necessary to remove the head of state, equivalent to two thirds of the 137 assembly members that make up Ecuador’s hemicycle, which would allow Lasso to continue in office.

This happened in June 2022, when in the midst of strong protests led by the indigenous movement against the high cost of living and the government’s economic policy, the opposition made a motion to remove the president, which gathered 80 votes in favour, twelve fewer. of the necessary

Now the promoters of the trial, including correísmo and the right-wing Christian Social Party (PSC), Lasso’s former electoral ally, claim to have enough votes, but the government is confident that this will not be the case and that they will once again have the minimum supports to save this new check.

In recent days, the Executive has focused on legally demonstrating that Lasso is exempt from responsibility in the alleged embezzlement that, according to the prosecution, commented through contracts signed by the state oil fleet (Flopec) with the private company Amazonas Tankers.

2.- Lasso leaves, Borrero president

If there were 92 votes in favor in the final vote, Lasso would be automatically stripped of his presidential inauguration, when he is about to complete half of the four-year term for which he was elected in 2021.

In his place, the current vice president, Alfredo Borrero, should assume the leadership of the State, a man who during Lasso’s tenure has represented the State before different international organizations and has participated in the strategy to get out of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Borrero would have to lead the Executive and complete the presidential term until 2025 with an unfavorable climate, in the face of a reinforced opposition after the results of the last electoral day on February 5, where they were the winners of the local elections and the referendum promoted by the Government, where he won the “No” to apply reforms to the Constitution.

From some political sectors it is suggested that, if this point is reached, a consultation cabinet be formed to reach 2025 in a more stable context.

3.- The “cross death”

The third and last scenario is the most controversial as it deals with the so-called “death cross”, a constitutional figure that allows the president to dissolve the Assembly and anticipate the general elections, to govern temporarily through decrees until the moment of handing over the baton to his successor.

Lasso has not hesitated to point out that it is a letter that he has on the table and that he could make use of it at the time he deems appropriate within the assumptions marked by the Constitution, which has aroused suspicion and criticism from the opposition, consider that you cannot resort to that option when you are in the middle of an impeachment trial.

For the opposition, the origin of the “death cross“should be analyzed by the Constitutional Court, in the same way that this court reviewed the accusation for the political trial, where it left out for lack of support the crime of extortion, the most publicized charge after revealing an alleged corruption plot in public companies where the businessman Danilo Carrera, Lasso’s brother-in-law, appears.

It is possible that under this scenario an eventual social outbreak was unleashed, since the indigenous movement, which has led the two great waves of protests in the country in recent years, is firm in demanding the departure of Lasso.

Source: EFE