India It will become the most populous country in the world at the end of the month, as confirmed by the UN in its latest updated projection on the evolution of the world population.
These figures, which have been refined over the weeks -although it was already known that April was going to be the month of the “sorpasso”- show that the Indian population will have reached a total of 1,425,775,850 people, a figure that certifies its place as the most populous country and that is expected to continue to rise for several decades.
While China once had a population of 1.426 million in 2022, that number has only dropped since then, beginning a trend that will see it drop below 1 billion by the end of this century, the UN says in a report. statement issued today.
The changes in fertility in both countries are what explain this new positioning: in 1971 both countries had a similar fertility rate (between 5 and 6 children per woman); In just seven years, China lowered that rate to 3 children per woman, a reduction that took India three and a half decades.
In 2022 the trend was much more similar: China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world (1.2 children per woman), but India (2 children per woman) has also fallen below the so-called “population replacement rate”, which scientists place at 2.1.
A phenomenon that both countries are already experiencing is the rapid aging of the population: according to the latest bulletin from the UN Department of Social Affairs, between this year and 2050 the number of people over 65 will have almost doubled in China and more than doubled in India.
But the percentages of the elderly over the entire population show very different realities: the number of working-age adults will increase steadily in India throughout this half-century, which will translate into more job opportunities and higher economic growth. .
By contrast, the 25-64 age group will soon peak in China and begin to decline, meaning a narrower window of economic opportunity.
Source: EFE
Source: Gestion
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