Lessons from Chinese military maneuvers around Taiwan

China carried out three days of military exercises around Taiwan, simulating attacks and an “encirclement” of the island, which it considers part of its territory.

These are the main lessons about Beijing’s military capabilities and the chances of Taiwan being invaded after the exercises, called “Joint Sword”.

What is known about Chinese military capabilities?

China has deployed a vast arsenal, including modern anti-ship missiles, fighters, bombers and even an aircraft carrier.

Taiwan’s defense ministry detected 12 Chinese warships and 91 aircraft around the island on Monday alone, 54 of which entered the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This is the highest number in a single day since 2021.

The complexity of the deployment “shows that China has made progress in preparing for a possible attack on Taiwan,” said Shi Yinhong of Renmin University, a former adviser to China’s State Council.

“The combat capability of the People’s Liberation Army is also constantly improving, especially its rapid reaction capability.”, analyst Song Zhongping, a former Chinese army officer, told AFP.

China believes that the greater the ability of its forces to encircle Taiwan, the less likely it will be that an international force will come to the island’s rescue.

Why has China reacted so strongly?

The moves were in reaction to a meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, and are reminiscent of those in August 2022 after a visit to Taipei by Nancy Pelosi, McCarthy’s predecessor.

On that occasion, China fired live ammunition a dozen nautical miles off the Taiwanese coast, its biggest show of force yet.

This week’s maneuvers were not as intense but revealed greater strategic sophistication, according to Chinese analysts.

“Compared to last August, the People’s Liberation Army’s battle plan has improvedSong said.

The deployment of the aircraft carrier “Shandong” suggests that the exercises were a rehearsal for a real war and not just a symbolic action, says Leung Kwok-leung, a Hong Kong-based military analyst.

“The intention is very clear: to test the combat capacity of the forces in a real environment”, he affirms, noting that the “Shandong” sailed through the Pacific Ocean, far from the Taiwan Strait.

What is known of China’s tactics?

As in August 2022, the exercises essentially consisted of simulating a Taiwan blockade and strikes to destroy the island’s defenses.

The Chinese air forces rehearsed what China called the “siege” from Taiwan, and Chinese propaganda spread infographics with “simulated attacks” against Taipei.

But some analysts doubt the effectiveness of this tactic.

“What can be done in a simulation can be reproduced in real combat conditions… or not”says Steve Tsang, from SOAS University in London.

According to the expert, the Chinese military will need another decade to “considerably strengthen these capabilities”, and to train its different components in coordinated actions.

What do the maneuvers mean for Taiwan’s future?

Taiwan has launched its own military exercises and insists that the island will resist what it calls the “authoritarian expansionism” from China.

In recent years, the Taipei government has opted to buy equipment from the United States to deter China or, failing that, inflict heavy losses on it in the event of an invasion.

The equipment “includes everything from aircraft to spare parts, missiles, missile technology, submarine technology, radar and surveillance equipment, and tanks”, says Ja Ian Chong, Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore.

Taiwan will have the region’s largest fleet of F-16 fighters when its US maker has delivered all the planes it has ordered, in a $62 billion contract.

These media “can send a message [a China] that any escalation is likely to be difficult to control, very risky and very expensive, whatever the end result,” says Ja Ian Chong.