This Sunday, Chileans will have to elect their new president and legislators.
This week Chile will have its presidential elections, in which four out of six candidates still have options to go to the second round, according to the latest polls.
The South American country arrives at this electoral stage after large demonstrations that began in 2019 and that ended up causing politicians to begin a process of drafting a new Constitution, which is currently developing the Constituent Convention.
Chilean sociologist Eugenio Tironi comments that the situation “is not so bad in Chile”, since economically it is recovering and social discontent has been channeled through measures such as the Convention. In addition, in daily life it is trying to return to the greatest possible normality after the COVID-19 pandemic, while certain measures have caused consumption to grow – hence VAT collection – and employment is recovering, although there is a little inflation over 5% this year, something that for Chile is extraordinary and in turn has put more weight on mortgage loans and others, since there were very low rates for a long time.
For the analyst Juan Velasco, the country has had a rebound effect economically due to several factors. Mainly because Chile is a producer of commoditiesRegarding minerals, the other thing is that the dollar has remained high and this makes exports more competitive, and third, domestic demand, which has also caused a certain increase in prices. While the investment factor is waiting for what happens with these elections and the new Constitution.
Regarding the last factor, he comments that the majority of the members of the Convention are in favor of reaching agreements, leaving aside the most radical and unworkable requests from the toughest sections of the left and right. Two currents that have increased their influence due to the growing polarization after the protests of recent years, the electoral processes, the Constitution and the pandemic.
“Economically, it will be difficult for the new president, who will try to implement part of the offers he makes in a slightly more precarious economic situation, trying to reach agreements in a polarized country,” says Velasco.
According to the latest Casen survey (2020), there are currently 2.1 million Chileans below the poverty line, of which 831.00 are below the extreme poverty line. The latter represent 4.3%, a level to which it rose from 2.3% in 2017, mainly due to the pandemic.
In a report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a part of its inhabitants considers that the intervention of the Government is necessary to reduce inequalities that they perceive too great, a perception that is in line with the real fracture of resources.
The unemployment rate in Chile fell to 8.4% in September, 3.9 percentage points compared to the same period of the previous year and is the lowest figure since March 2020, when the pandemic arrived in the country, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), which added that the expansion of the employed was influenced by the commerce, construction and accommodation and food service sectors.
“The worst of the pandemic is behind us (…). The restoration of the jobs lost due to the pandemic is progressing steadily, ”said Economy Minister Lucas Palacios in October.
The Chilean Central Bank increased its projection of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 in August, estimating that it will oscillate between 10.5% and 11.5%, while the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) pointed to a rise of 9.2% for this year, collects EFE.
Meanwhile, President Piñera is seen from two sides.
One that recognizes its work in the pandemic, being Chile one of the countries that best worked the arrival of vaccines in the world, as well as for the economic measures to face the difficult economic situation, such as bonuses and the early withdrawal of part of retirements, which helped increase consumption, although economic experts believe that there should be no more withdrawals of funds so as not to cause more problems in the long term.
The pandemic, which has almost 1.7 million infected and more than 37,000 deaths, is experiencing a slight rebound in Chile, although the country has not put new restrictions and is enjoying normality. In parallel, one of the most successful vaccination processes in the world has been implemented, with almost 90% of the target population receiving two doses.
From another sector it is considered that Piñera is cornered by various issues, including accusation for allegedly incurring serious misconduct for the sale of a mining company during his first term (2010-2014). This took away from him, despite the fact that the impeachment against him did not advance, maneuverability and power for the last months that he has left in power.
Meanwhile, in the south of the country, the conflict with the indigenous Mapuche goes through a complicated situation, which has led to the militarization of that part of the country, but it is a problem that has been coming for a long time due to problems of land use and ownership, as well as as for poverty, culture and identity and autonomy and has not had much weight in terms of electoral matters this time, according to experts.
In the end, it will also be necessary to see what happens with the Constituent Convention and if its draft Constitution is approved, since depending on what is decided, there could be other elections in the near future or create a mechanism for officials to serve their term. (I)
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