Risk of serious collision for the Space Station after destruction of Russian satellite

The destruction of a satellite by the Russians generated a debris cloud near the International Space Station (ISS), with seven astronauts on board. Didier Schmitt, an official of the European Space Agency (ESA), explains how this incident increases the risk of collisions in space.

Were the astronauts on the ISS, four Americans, two Russians and a German, on the brink of catastrophe?

“It is difficult to say in hindsight. But what is known now, according to our sources, is that the risk of collision would be five times higher in the weeks and even months to come. This new debris circulates in the same orbit as the Station, that is, at an altitude of about 400 km, at more than 8 km per second.

Therefore, to avoid them, you have to predict them well in advance: you can then raise or lower the orbit of the ISS a bit.

But for that a precise mapping of the objects in question is required, which is not the case now, as it has just happened. American radars are doing the math to find out.

Meanwhile, what can astronauts do? Are they afraid?

“Yesterday (Monday), you had to cross your fingers and put them in their respective capsules. Some objects passed within 1 km!

For now, the ISS should no longer pass through the same area as the wreckage. But of course the astronauts were afraid!

Are the remains a growing threat? How to protect yourself?

“The great danger of the remains is the domino effect. If there are more debris, there are more possibilities of impacting satellites, that is, to explode others and so on. At that speed, any impact explodes the surface.

The Station was built in the 1990s. Although collision risks have increased since then, the original structure of the ship has not changed.

The capsules docked in the ISS are better protected by several layers of aluminum, which mitigates the impact. And since these capsules are smaller relative to the size of the ISS (as big as a soccer field), the risk of collision is lower.

In the event of an impact with the Station, the catastrophic scenario of the movie + Gravity + will not necessarily occur. The station is equipped with pressure sensors: if a collision causes a hole somewhere, one of the station modules can be isolated, closing it. And then repair the leaks, as the Russians did with the Mir station.

Now, if the debris hits a deposit, there it is serious and can explode. But it would truly be the height of bad luck!