What is China’s strategy in Ukraine?

China presented a proposal for a solution to the war in Ukraineone year after the invasion began russian. These are the main edges of its growing role in the conflict.

Arms to Russia?

Since the war began, China has presented itself as a neutral player, but has maintained close relations with Russia.

State-controlled Chinese companies have sold non-lethal drones and other equipment to Russia and Ukraine, and Moscow has turned to Iran for weapons.

But the United States believes that this could change. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in February that China is “considering providing lethal support” to Russia, something Beijing quickly denied, accusing Washington of “stoke the fire” of the war with its massive arms shipments to the Ukrainian government.

USA It has not provided concrete evidence that China is considering sending weapons to Russia, but experts told AFP that this theory would be partly credible, and that an eventual entry by Beijing into the conflict could change the scenario.

Chinese proposal

In the past year, China has faced growing calls from the West to condemn the war in Ukraine.

Offering itself as a mediator, Beijing last week presented a 12-point document to achieve peace, which includes respect for the territorial sovereignty of all countries.

The proposal calls on all parties to “support Russia and Ukraine to work in the same direction and resume direct dialogue as soon as possible.”

But the document, praised by the UN and Russia, was met with skepticism by Ukraine’s allies. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg claimed that Beijing “He doesn’t have much credibility because he hasn’t condemned the illegal invasion of Ukraine.”

Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Asia Program, told AFP that the document is “largely a summary of China’s pronouncements in the past year.”

“Beijing still claims that NATO is the cause of the war and refuses to condemn the Russian invasion. This is old wine in a pre-owned bottle.” Glaser indicated.

Meetings with friends of Putin

But as Beijing defends its neutrality, Chinese President Xi Jinping is meeting this week with his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko.

As one of the few reliable allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko could give Beijing an update on the situation in Ukraine and potentially influence China’s strategy on the issue.

Economic relations between Belarus and China had been strengthening until the pandemic and the Russian invasion hit the supply chain and the world economy.

Belarus was used by Russia as a rear base for its invasion of Ukraine last February.

Dialogue with Zelensky?

On the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his desire to meet with Xi Jinping to discuss Chinese proposals to resolve the crisis.

“I really want to believe that China will not supply Russia with weapons”Zelensky declared.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not given any details about a possible meeting of this type, limiting itself to pointing out that “maintain communications with relevant parties.”

Zelenski welcomed the Chinese proposal, as did the Russian Foreign Ministry.

The Ukrainian president could take advantage of that meeting to ask Beijing to use its influence over Russia to resolve the conflict.

But China has given no sign of such intentions, Elizabeth Wishnick, a researcher at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute, told AFP.

“On the contrary, [Xi] is considering visiting Moscow and repeats Russian propaganda about the responsibility of the United States and NATO in the war,” Wishnick noted.

Source: AFP