The cold has arrived and Europe does not have enough energy

Europe it is about to have its first cold snap of the winter season, putting the continent’s already scarce energy supplies under pressure.

Temperatures are expected to drop starting next week, and parts of Italy are forecast to be as much as 2 ° C below normal. Southern France, Spain and Germany are also forecast to be colder than usual, according to The Weather Company. Centrica Plc, the UK’s leading energy provider, has warned its 9 million customers of the situation to prepare for a major frost that could last up to six weeks.

The region will be particularly sensitive to cold waves in the coming months. Gasoline prices are rising for the second week after hitting records in October. The additional supplies promised by Russia so far have been negligible and Norwegian flows have been reduced due to heavy maintenance.

“This will challenge energy supplies across Europe,” said Tyler Roys, lead forecaster for Europe at AccuWeather Inc.

A high-pressure system could also bring cooler northern flows into central and southern Europe by the end of the month, said Carlo Cafaro, a Marex research analyst and senior meteorologist.

Gas benchmark prices are still almost four times higher than normal for this time of year, driving up European electricity and emission permits.

The temperatures colder in the south will coincide with stormy weather over the Mediterranean with threats of floods and landslides, Roys said. This will bring big changes in wind generation, which will likely further increase price volatility.

November temperatures overall could end up close to normal, but may still be colder than the above-average levels of the past four years, according to Accuweather data. That could also affect gas storage levels as companies withdraw supplies to meet increased demand, which is already rebounding as economies rebound from the pandemic.

The number of heating degree-days, a measure of demand, will be higher than the 10-year normal for the next two weeks, according to Maxar. But there is still some uncertainty among the models for northwestern Europe, and the forecasts haven’t been very accurate lately, said Steven Silver, a meteorologist at Maxar.

The arrival of cold weather in Europe would follow freezing temperatures and snowfall in China, the world’s largest energy consumer. Higher demand for heating could intensify the already fierce battle over liquefied natural gas shipments, with flexible US LNG prices even more attractive in Asia.

The development of the La Niña weather pattern in the Pacific basin means possible cooler-than-average temperatures in Northeast Asia during the winter months, but better availability from nuclear reactors in Japan and South Korea, as well as a increased domestic production in China could keep any increase in LNG imports in check, Energy Aspects Ltd. said last week.