inflation in Colombia It would have accelerated again in February, mainly due to tariff readjustments in sectors such as education, rentals and transportation, a Reuters poll revealed on Tuesday, in which the forecasts for the consolidated 2023 also rebounded.
According to the median of the query among 18 analysts, consumer prices would have increased by 1.70% in February, higher than the 1.63% posted in the same month last year, but lower than the 1.78% in January.
For Bancolombia, the greatest upward contribution to inflation would be in the rates of the education sector, rents, transportation prices, and telephone and Internet services, mainly.
“In February it is expected that the pressures of indexed goods and services will be seen in a more pronounced way. Education, for example, could register one of the largest increases, with the start of the school year and the increase in the prices of tuition and school products”, said the BBVA analysis area.
“Restaurants and hotels will also present a significant increase, given that it is strongly associated with the minimum wage and that the return of the lack of consumption will continue to be transmitted to consumers. Transportation, for its part, would see a continuation of the increases seen in January”he explained.
Monthly estimates fluctuated between 1% and 2.10%.
If the median of the survey is met, inflation for the last 12 months until February would accumulate 13.35%, higher than the 13.25% registered at the end of January, its highest level since March 1999 when it reached 13.51% and more than four times the Central Bank target of 3%.
The inflation result would support a final increase in the central bank’s benchmark interest rate, currently at 12.75%, at its meeting next month, experts said.
“For now we continue to expect an increase of 50 basis points at the March meeting,” said Camilo Pérez, chief economist at Banco de Bogotá. “We believe that it is the last increase insofar as the economic slowdown is much more evident and that is going to stop Banco de la República”.
The technical team of the Central Bank projects a strong deceleration of the Colombian economy to 0.2% for all of 2023, from the 7.5% expansion reached last year.
Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the end of the year rose to 9.10% from the 8.75% that the survey of the previous month showed, while for the end of 2024 they remained at 5%, only returning to the punctual goal. of the Central Bank until 2025.
The technical team of the Central Bank -whose analyzes are a fundamental input for the decisions adopted by the board of directors of the issuing bank- projects inflation of 8.7% for the end of this year and 3.5% for 2024.
Source: Reuters
Source: Gestion
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