Morgan Stanley raised its estimate of global demand growth for Petroleum for this year around 36%, citing the growing momentum of the Chinese reopening and the recovery of aviation, but noting the increase in supply russian as a compensating factor.
World crude oil consumption is now expected to rise to about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), from its previous forecast of 1.4 million bpd, the bank said in a note dated Tuesday.
“Mobility indicators in Chinalike congestion, have increased steadily,” while “Flight schedules have bolstered the outlook for jet fuel demand.”
However, Russian supply has been stronger than expected, leading to a somewhat smaller-than-expected deficit in the second half of the year, the bank’s analysts wrote, cutting their Brent price forecast for that period to 90 -100 dollars per barrel from the previous 100-110 dollars.
“We previously estimated a ~1 mb/d year-on-year decline in 2023, which we moderated to 0.4 mb/d,” the bank said, referring to its outlook for Russian production in million barrels a day.
This month, Goldman Sachs cut its Brent price forecast for 2023 and raised its global supply forecasts for 2023 and 2024, with Russia, Kazakhstan and the United States the most notable upward adjustments. He also indicated that a 1.1 million bpd increase in Chinese demand should push oil markets back into deficit in June.
Oil prices fell for the third straight session on Wednesday, with benchmark Brent trading around $82.75 a barrel.
However, expectations of lower global supply and increased demand from China cushioned the general weakness in prices.
Source: Reuters
Source: Gestion
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