news agency

Peronist President Fernández Faces Key Test in Argentina Midterm Elections

The president of Argentina, Alberto Fernandez, will face a political test on Sunday that could split its ruling Peronist coalition, cause an exodus of ministers and derail the ruling party’s campaign two years before the 2023 presidential elections.

The country will hold its mid-term legislative elections tomorrow (Sunday), with primaries and polls that suggest that Argentines will punish the government, potentially eliminating the majority in the Senate that Peronism has held for decades.

The consequences could be painful. Analysts do not agree on what a defeat would mean, but the collapse of the ruling party in the September primaries triggered numerous resignations in the Cabinet and a confrontation between moderate and hard sectors of the Government.

“We found a ruling party with great chances of losing the quorum in the Senate. It would be a historical scene for Peronism and frankly it gives the impression, from what is being handled, that this scene is going to take place, ”said Shila Vilker, director of the Trespuntozero consultancy.

Meanwhile, investors and operators are closely following the Argentine political ups and downs.

The country, an agro-export powerhouse, is currently negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the renegotiation of a US $ 45 billion debt that it cannot pay, a test both for the Fund and for Argentina’s credentials in global markets.

Those conversations so far have been led by the most moderate voices of the Government, including those of the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, as well as President Fernández himself.

Nikhil Sanghani, an analyst at Capital Economics, said in a note that the most likely effect of the election result on the government would be for the government to take a more moderate turn as it is forced to negotiate with the opposition to obtain a deal.

However, a “strong defeat” could take things the other way.

“There could be a period of internal Peronist dispute or a policy paralysis for a few months. However, something will have to give in the middle of next year, when Argentina approaches a potential key moment regarding its payments to the IMF, “Sanghani said.

‘A change for the better’

The government could lose its majority in the Senate and be defeated in the province of Buenos Aires, a historic stronghold of Peronism, the most influential political party in Argentina in the last 70 years.

María Gagliani, a 56-year-old caretaker from a provincial school, lamented the difficulties faced by Peronism, historically recognized by voters for its welfare policies, but resisted by investors and markets for its extensive regulations on the economy.

“We must help the government’s project to prosper,” Gagliani said, adding that it was preferable to the neoliberal alternative offered by the government of former President Mauricio Macri. “The pandemic was very complicated, but even so and the entire economy begins to show encouraging signs.”

However, many voters are tired of inflation near 50% a year, currency controls that have affected trade, weak economic growth, poverty and controversial policies such as limits on beef exports this year.

Melina Prato, a 29-year-old lawyer, said that no political party fully convinces her, but that she would vote for the opposition, which she believes would likely improve the country’s situation. “I would like a change for the better and not for the worse,” he said.

Political analyst Raúl Timmerman said a silver lining is that an emboldened opposition may be inclined to work with the government, imagining that if it were to win the presidency in 2023 it would have to deal with the economic fallout. “They will not want to catch a country in ‘default’,” he explained.

.

You may also like

Hot News

TRENDING NEWS

Subscribe

follow us