Lukashenko’s pulse to the EU with migrants: what’s behind it?

The tension between European Union (EU) and Belarus increases every day after the arrival on Monday of about 2,000 people from Minsk to the Polish border, a pulse that the authoritarian Belarusian leader, Alexandr LukashenkoHe throws out the Twenty-seven and that he has the migrants as the great victims.

These are the keys to this crisis:

What has happened?

Last Monday a large column of migrants from the Middle East, mostly Kurds from Iraq and Syria, arrived at the Belarusian border with Poland. In released footage, members of the Belarusian security forces could be seen accompanying what would turn out to be about 2,000 migrants, according to Minsk.

Since then they have erected precarious camps with wood and tents on the border amid low night temperatures, trying to fight with bonfires, and lack of food. Among the migrants there are many children and also pregnant women.

The first humanitarian operation carried out with the help of the Belarusian Red Cross and the UN arrived at the border on Thursday.

From that enclave, near the Belarusian region of Grodno, many dressed in warm clothes, they try to cut the barbed wire and cross to the EU, but on the other side of the border they run into 15,000 troops from Poland.

How did they get to the border?

Through what is known as the Belarusian route. They arrive on flights from the Middle East and Gulf countries operated by different airlines, such as Turkey. Belarus claims that they arrive legally on tourist visas. But NGOs claim that it is an operation organized from Minsk.

According to Belarusian lawyer Aliona Chejovich, an immigration expert, the Belarusian authorities “were the ones who launched an advertising campaign several months ago” in which Belarus was listed as the transit country to the EU.

Tourist agencies and tour operators that depend on the Presidential Administration would participate and benefit from this campaign.

Why doesn’t Lukashenko prevent the migration flow to the EU?

The origin is in the sanctions of the West against the regime of the Belarusian president. The EU does not know the outcome of the presidential elections in August 2020, in which Lukashenko claimed more than 80% of the votes and which the opposition and the West consider fraudulent.

The crackdown – which included allegations of torture – was Minsk’s response to the largest opposition and citizen protests in Belarusian history.

Sanctions were tightened after the Belarusian regime last May forced the landing of a flight of the low-cost airline Ryanair that covered the Athens-Vilnius route on the grounds that there was a bomb warning that turned out to be false.

This diversion of the plane allowed the Belarusian government to detain the journalist, the opposition journalist Román Protasevich and his partner, the Russian citizen Sofía Sapega.

Lukashenko went on to say that he was not obliged to protect the EU from the flow of migrants when the EU bloc has imposed sanctions that impact the country’s economy.

“They are suffocating us and should we protect them? Listen, isn’t that naive? Naively, this is already crazy, ”he said in July, admitting for the first time that he was not going to do anything to stop the flow.

Is Poland the only country affected?

No, since last spring, illegal entry attempts have multiplied into Latvia, Lithuania and Poland from Belarus. Only this time the arrival has been massive.

What is the reaction of Poland?

Poland has reinforced the border with Belarus with 15,000 troops between Border Guard, police and reservists. The state of emergency remains in force in the almost 200 municipalities on the border with Belarus and has completely prohibited access by civilians to the most conflictive areas.

Warsaw, together with the entire EU, considers the crisis not a migration crisis but a political one and accuses Lukashenko of human trafficking and waging a hybrid war against the EU to destabilize the community club.

Poland has not been transparent to date about the situation on its border with Belarus, to which it prevents access, nor has it accepted the help of Frontex or other European agencies.

What about the Baltic countries?

Lithuanian Prime Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis will ask the UN to pressure Belarus to open a humanitarian corridor that allows the return home of the migrants gathered on the border with Lithuania and Poland.

He wants the UN to monitor that migrants who are willing to return to their countries of origin from border areas can do so safely. For this, the Grodno airport, a city in western Belarus close to the borders with Poland and Lithuania, would be enabled.

What steps is the EU taking to respond to Minsk?

The EU has shown its support for Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. The European border agency Frontex is assisting Poland in returning irregular migrants to Iraq, although there is no physical deployment in Poland.

On Tuesday the EU decided to partially suspend the application of the visa facilitation agreement between the EU and Belarus, something that will affect Belarusian officials.

The EU is currently preparing the fifth package of sanctions against the Lukashenko regime, which includes exploring restrictive measures against the regime and the Belarusian state airline Belavia, but also against third-country airlines that are “actively involved in human trafficking”.