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COP26: What changes the China-US agreement? for Beijing?

It was the surprise of the final stretch of the COP26. Chinese and Americans announced an agreement confirming their cooperation on climate change, despite their political differences.

What does this agreement mean for Beijing and how these commitments adopted in the last days of the world conference on the HIM-HER-IT about the climate in Glasgow (UK) should be interpreted?

What are China’s climate goals?

China is, in absolute terms, the country that emits the most greenhouse gases, responsible for global warming, but the Asian giant does not hold the world record for per capita emissions.

Last year, China pledged to reach its peak in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2030 and to reach “carbon neutrality” by 2060, that is to produce and absorb equally.

It also plans to reduce its carbon intensity (CO2 emissions linked to GDP) by more than 65% by 2030 compared to 2005.

China has yet to detail how it plans to achieve these goals. Among the fears of environmental activists is that the peak of 2030 is too high.

In recent years, China closed numerous coal-fired power plants (very polluting). Its president, Xi Jinping, promised that his country will not finance others abroad either. But they are still being built in the country since there are no alternative sources at the moment.

What do the US and China agree on? –

The main promise is the launch of a bilateral working group dedicated to the fight against climate change. A meeting must be held in the first quarter of 2022.

China and the United States, the main emitters of greenhouse gases, affirm in this agreement that they “recognize the gravity and urgency of the climate crisis”, particularly in this “critical decade”.

This bilateral pact does not have many specific objectives and its main value is undoubtedly political.

For Li Shuo, head of Greenpeace China, the agreement shows the “political will to separate the climate issue a bit” from the issues that cause tension between Chinese and Americans. “This makes it possible to avoid the disengagement of China and the United States on climate issues,” he said.

What progress on the methane issue?

A hundred countries pledged in Glasgow to cut their methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030, but China is not part of this group.

“Methane is one of the gases that we can reduce the fastest,” stressed the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. This “would immediately decrease warming,” he added.

The agreement between the two countries includes a point on methane, the second greenhouse gas present in the atmosphere, after CO2.

The two countries are going to talk about how to improve methane emissions from industry, agriculture or waste, in order to reduce them.

China envisages an action plan to significantly reduce and control methane emissions, but according to experts it lacks experience on the origin and extent of methane emissions in its territory.

Advance the deadlines?

The United States tried to convince China to advance peak emissions to before 2030, but to no avail.

The Chinese did not want to give the impression of giving in to the great American rival and, in addition, due to the problems in the electricity supply, China had to increase its coal production in these months.

The agreement between the two countries provides that the two countries can review their long-term strategies and continue the dialogue on climate issues.

Shiran Victoria Shen, an environmental policy expert at Stanford University in the United States, underlined optimistically that China tends to “promise less, but to do more than what is agreed in its international commitments.”

This leads to hope that “an unambitious promise will finally be accompanied by necessary changes,” he confided.

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