How the coronavirus pandemic got out of control in Germany

For the first time since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Germany recorded more than 50,000 daily cases of covid-19.

According to the Robert Koch Institute, the public disease control and prevention agency, 50,196 infections were confirmed in Germany on Wednesday, making it the European country with the highest number of daily infections, according to the BBC.

With almost 250 infections per 100,000 inhabitants, their situation is much worse than in France (94) or Italy (73), according to Statista data cited by the AFP agency.

The force with which this fourth wave of covid-19 Hitting that country has set off the alarms not only of those responsible for health, but also of the political and economic ones.

Olaf Scholz, the current vice chancellor and probable successor to Angela Merkel, said on Thursday that Germany needs to apply greater restrictions to contain the increase in infections and thus be able to “spend this winter [boreal]”.

Even if the situation is different [del invierno pasado] because many people have been vaccinated, it is still not good, especially since so far a sufficient number of people have not chosen to be vaccinated, “he added.

And it is that insufficient vaccination against covid-19 is seen as the main cause of the rise of the disease.

Vaccine reluctance

Since mid-October, infections and deaths from coronavirus have been increasing in Germany, something that experts attribute to its relatively low vaccination rate, since only 67% of its population has the complete guideline, according to the publication Our World in It dates from the University of Oxford.

That figure leaves it behind countries such as Portugal (88%), Spain (80%), Ireland (75%), Belgium (74%) or Italy (72%), among others.

In addition, Germany has only an additional 2% of partially vaccinated population, so even adding to these it does not reach 70% of vaccination.

In total, some 16 million Germans over the age of 12 are not fully vaccinated.

And this is not due to a lack of inputs.

In fact, the German government has recognized that it is unlikely that many of these people will be persuaded and that despite the fact that this fourth wave is being considered, as in many other parts of the world, as a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

On Wednesday, the state of Saxony registered the highest infection rate in the country: about 459 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, while the national rate is less than 250.

But Saxony also has the lowest vaccination rate: just 57% of its population has been vaccinated.

The effects of the decision on whether to vaccinate or not are reflected in the health centers.

In the intensive care room for covid-19 at the University Hospital in Leipzig, for example, there were 18 people hospitalized, of whom only four had been vaccinated, according to the BBC’s correspondent in Germany, Jenny Hill.

“It is very difficult to motivate staff to treat patients now in this fourth wave. A large part of the population still underestimates the problem, ”said Professor Sebastian Stehr, head of that area of ​​the hospital.

The consequences in terms of human lives can be very high.

As Christian Drosten, one of Germany’s most renowned virologists, warned, some 100,000 people could die in that country if steps are not taken to stop this aggressive fourth wave.

“We have to act now,” stressed Drosten, who described the situation as a true emergency.

Constraints and economics

To try to stop the infections, a series of restrictions are already being outlined.

The Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the liberal FDP – who are in negotiations to form a new government coalition – presented in Parliament a series of proposals to deal with the pandemic.

These include allowing access to certain locations only to those vaccinated or those who have already recovered from the disease, tightening the requirements for COVID-19 testing in workplaces, and reintroducing rapid antigen tests, which were applied during last summer.

These proposals will be analyzed by the lower house of Congress this week and, if approved, could go into effect by the end of the month.

In the state of Saxony they have already begun to apply some additional measures such as the prohibition of entry of unvaccinated people to bars, restaurants, public events and sports and recreation venues.

This measure angered the anti-vaccine groups that last weekend held a protest in Leipzig in which thousands of people participated.

“This is discrimination and we want to express in a vehement way that we do not accept this in our society,” emphasized Leif Hansen, a representative of one of Leipzig’s anti-vaccine groups.

“They say that vaccination is okay and that I should give it to my children? Never. I have a feeling that this should never enter my body and I will fight as hard as I can to prevent it, ”Hansen told the BBC.

Beyond these restrictions, many fear a new lockdown will be applied.

Among them is Nadine Herzog, who is the co-owner of a bar in Leipzig that barely survived the previous confinement.

“My business is dying. My dreams came true and now we suffer because people do not do the logical things to prevent others from getting sick and dying and I am so upset, “she told the BBC.

But many are already discounting the consequences that the sum of the restrictions against covid-19 plus global problems in the supply chain will have on the German economy.

The German Council of Economic Experts, an advisory group to the government, this week cut its GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.1% to 2.7%.

“Bottlenecks in the supply chain are slowing down industrial production and Germany is particularly affected by this, more so than other countries where industry accounts for a smaller share of GDP,” explained Volker Wieland, professor of monetary policy at the University. Goethe of Frankfurt, according to the Financial Times newspaper.

With these GDP figures, Germany this year would have one of the lowest growth rates in the entire euro area.

Meanwhile, long lines of people were seen at some vaccination centers in Leipzig this week, perhaps evidence that some are changing their minds about the vaccine.

However, in the intensive care ward of the Leipzig University Hospital they fear that the damage has already been done. They have canceled operations and postponed elective procedures to reserve beds for covid-19 patients.

Doctors have told the BBC that almost half of the people who enter there will end up dying.

“For Germany, which invented one of the first vaccines against covid-19 in the world, that is a source of great shame,” says Jenny Hill, the BBC’s correspondent in that country.