The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) predicted a global deficit of cocoa of 174,000 tons in the current season 2021-2022 (October-September), slightly below the previous projection of 181,000 tons.
The intergovernmental body, in a quarterly report, cut its outlook for world cocoa grinding in 2021-2022 by 38,000 tons to 5.05 million tons, now only 1.5% above the previous season.
ICCO said cocoa demand had sustained its post-pandemic recovery in the first half of the 2021-2022 season, although grinding reports for the current quarter would allow a better assessment of the impact of the conflict on Ukraine.
Milling reports covering the second quarter of 2022 are expected to be released next month.
“The impact of the general slowdown in world economic growth (after the Russian invasion of Ukraine) and the uncertainties have affected the sector of raw materials, including cocoa”said the ICCO.
World cocoa production in 2021-2022 was forecast at 4.92 million tonnes, some 32,000 tonnes less than ICCO’s previous projection and now 6% below the previous season.
The revision was prompted by cuts to Ghana (from 22,000 tons to 800,000 tons) and Nigeria (from 10,000 tons to 270,000 tons).
“Several factors, including adverse weather conditions and disease, are negatively impacting production for the current season, with concerns over the size and quality of the ongoing mid-crop in West Africa.”ICCO said.
The ICCO estimated that there was a global cocoa surplus of 215,000 tonnes in 2020-2021.