The Organization of American States (OAS) is debated between those who bet on a diplomatic solution to the situation in Nicaragua, those who seek to suspend the country from the organization and those who opt for caution or even defend the illegitimate government of Daniel Ortega.
Ortega was “reelected“On Sunday for a fourth consecutive government after having repressed opponents who could overshadow him: most were sent to prison and others went into exile. The arrests have occurred since the 2018 protests, which called for his resignation and resulted in hundreds of deaths.
The OAS has long urged Nicaragua to respect human rights and adopted two resolutions calling for their release “Of political prisoners“And elections”free and just ”.
In the resolution approved in October, it warned Managua that the general assembly – inaugurated on Wednesday – could take “other actions in accordance with the Charter of the Organization of American States and the Inter-American Democratic Charter.”
By “Other actions”Means an eventual suspension.
A draft resolution promoted on Wednesday by eight countries (the United States, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, Uruguay, and Antigua and Barbuda) asks the Permanent Council to “an immediate collective evaluation no later than November 30 and take appropriate action. “
That implies a step towards suspension, although it does allow some room for maneuver.
An eventual suspension would not completely isolate Nicaragua on an international level “because the Ortega regime has the support of several countries that are not members of the OAS, which, presumably, will continue to provide diplomatic, economic, commercial and financial support”Said Luis Guillermo Solís, former president of Costa Rica and acting director of the Kimberly Green Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies.
He added that “the attitude they will assume remains to be seen”Some countries when voting, among which he cites Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador and Mexico.
Russia, Cuba, Bolivia and Venezuela support Nicaragua, whose ambassador to the OAS, Arturo Mcfields Yescas, he maintained that in his country “it was voted freely, free from pressure, free from blackmail, free from interference and free from sanctions ”.
The non-suspension of Nicaragua on the OAS “it would be a failure of the international community”Says Joel Martínez, an analyst at the Center for American Progress.
If the OAS increases pressure on the Nicaraguan government, it would strengthen the efforts of the international community “not to recognize his new mandate and announce and implement coercive measures“, Add.
The general secretary of the OASLuis Almagro, declared in June in favor of activating the mechanisms to apply Article 21 of the Inter-American Democratic Charter, by virtue of which a member state can be suspended if it breaks the democratic order and diplomacy does not yield results.
In the event that the suspension is decided, the country should continue to comply with its human rights obligations and the OAS it would continue to work for the reestablishment of democracy in the suspended state.
Solís highlighted the difficulty of inducing a country to abide by its international obligations if it refuses “repeatedly, defiantly and stubbornly”.
That is why he considered it more effective for the negotiation to be carried out by apolitical humanitarian organizations, by a personality that is not linked to Nicaragua, like a Nobel Prize winner or an artistic or sports figure, or even someone who sympathizes with Ortega’s cause and precisely for that reason has a certain “convening power”.
In any case the OAS faces a diplomatic headache of uncertain outcome.
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