The “coal renaissance” in the EU was over before it got off to a good start. And there is an even bigger loser

In 2022, the crisis followed the crisis in the energy sector. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its consequences caused turmoil on the markets and an increase in gas and coal prices. In addition, a severe drought caused a decrease in production from hydropower plants, and in France a large number of nuclear power plants were out of operation.

To save themselves from high prices and the specter of gas shortages, some countries have prepared old coal-fired power plants for commissioning. Sources of raw materials were frantically sought to replace those we had stopped buying from Russia. There has even been talk of a “carbon renaissance”. However, energy data shows that this “renaissance” – if there was one – was over before it really began. Electricity production from coal has grown slightly, and gas is an even bigger loser. For the first time in history, more electricity has been produced from renewable sources than from gas, and the direction for the future is clear.

“Coal return fears can be buried”

The report on European energy was published by the British thnik-tank Ember. It shows that in 2022 wind farms and photovoltaics produced 22 percent. electricity in the European Union. For the first time in history, they overtook gas (20%). According to the goal of the EU climate policy, by 2030 the EU is to have 45 percent. electricity from renewable sources.

Wind and sun have long overtaken coal in energy production, which was responsible for 16 percent of the world’s electricity. electricity production. The increase in coal production was small and temporary. Their share in energy production was 1.5 percentage points higher in total, but started to decline again from September. In the last four months, electricity from coal was already 6 percent. less than in the same period a year earlier.

Of the 26 coal units prepared for commissioning due to the crisis, seven were not turned on at all. The others worked for a total of 18 percent. power. Only 1/3 of the coal imported in 2022 was used. Ember emphasizes that countries that had plans to phase out coal did not change them in the face of the crisis.

Dave Jones of Ember assessed that Europe “avoided the worst effects of the energy crisis”. – The shocks of 2022 caused a small jolt of coal power and a big wave of support for renewable energy. Concerns about the return of coal can be buried, he said. In the graph below you can see how the production of energy from wind and solar (green) has been increasing for over 20 years; ahead of declining coal after 2018, and now also gas.

According to Ember’s analysis, the record increase in electricity production from photovoltaics (+24%) and wind helped to cope with the shortage of hydro and nuclear power plants. This saved an additional EUR 10 billion that would have to be spent on gas. Due to the increased production of electricity from coal, greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector increased by almost 4 percent, but according to the analysis, “it could be much worse”. Renewables have prevented a much greater carbon rebound.

Saving also helped in coping with the crisis. The demand for electricity fell in the last quarter of 2022 by 7.9 percent. We were also lucky with the weather – a warm autumn and a mild winter reduced the demand for energy.

Gas with no future

Europe has reduced its overall gas consumption – but it has largely saved industry. In the energy sector, it was not possible to save it, and even the consumption increased slightly. However, according to analysts, this will change “drastically” in the coming years.

According to Ember in 2023, the expansion of wind and solar power will accelerate in 2023 in response to the crisis. A large part of the energy production from French nuclear power plants and hydropower plants will also return. The combination of these factors is expected to cause the production of energy from fossil fuels to fall sharply – by up to 20 percent. (as seen in the chart below).

“The European green transition is emerging from this crisis stronger than ever,” said Dave Jones. He pointed out that – in the face of price fluctuations and geopolitical conditions – European countries are convinced not only to phase out coal, but are now also striving to phase out gas.

– Gas was the biggest loser of 2022 – its record prices and uncertainty about supplies exposed the risks associated with fuel imports. By focusing on gas energy, the government makes us dangerously dependent on fuel suppliers who, like Russia, will be able to blackmail us or inflate prices, and this will affect our security and electricity bills.

– said Paweł Czyżak from the Ember think-tank.

RES is also growing in Poland

Also in Poland, renewable energy was the biggest winner and recorded increases in 2022. And this despite administrative and other barriers.

– So far, the government has consistently adopted a reluctant attitude towards renewable energy sources, in particular windmills. We are still waiting for the unlocking of the so-called. the 10H rule, which prevents the installation of turbines in most of the country’s territory. On the other hand, the greater openness of politicians, e.g. to solar energy in multi-family buildings, should be praised – said Czyżak.

As the expert pointed out, in Poland “despite the difficulties and legal turmoil”, the production of electricity from the sun has doubled, and the production of electricity from windmills has increased by almost one-fifth (19%). – In total, renewable energy sources provided us with 21 percent. electricity between January and November, a huge increase compared to previous years. We have also crossed the magical barrier of a million prosumers, who are now a social group that is difficult to omit in political discussions – he noted.

Last year, some politicians in Poland eagerly picked up the slogan of a “coal renaissance”. However, according to Czyżak, “the trend in Europe is clear – we need to build windmills and solar power plants as soon as possible.”

– In the coming years, coal and gas will probably not disappear completely, but their role in the energy sector will decrease until they provide power reserves, e.g. at low winds. Such ‘peak’ operation of gas or coal-fired power plants allows, on the one hand, to ensure continuity of power supply, and on the other hand, to save expensive fuel. However, it must be said directly that the times of coal and gas as technologies working at the base of the energy system are over, i.e. almost constantly. The government and energy companies should adapt their plans to these new realities, he said.