Disappearance of barbecue indicates pressure on global meat market

It is not uncommon for meat purchases to drop during economic downturns. Surprisingly, demand is declining faster in many of the countries where beef has traditionally been the protein of choice.

In Brazil, consumption was on track to hit a record low in 2022. According to data from NielsenIQ, US consumers have reduced their purchases by more than 4% in the last year, while sales of roast beef and steak in the UK have collapsed.

Perhaps no place better reflects this trend than Argentina. Argentine barbecue is so closely entrenched in the national fabric that, even during some of the worst recessions, consumption proved resistant to belt tightening. Recent price spikes in a country famous for consuming more beef than almost any other are forcing consumers to turn to chicken, which is now competing for the title of the country’s most consumed protein.

Omar Anibal Sosa, a 41-year-old resident of Buenos Aires and father of three children, nostalgically remembers his last barbecue, more than a month ago, which in Argentina seems like an eternity. He remembers the menu: he reluctantly substituted the once-irreplaceable strip-and-vacuo roast for low-quality cuts like skirt steak, along with chicken and pork. And he bought the meat by asking the butcher to cut a fillet or two for him, instead of ordering by the kilo, as is traditional.

“I lit the grill every weekendsaid Sosa, who works as a church handyman and delivery man.

“Nowadays, making a barbecue is a luxury“, he pointed.

By 2023, the Department of Agriculture of USA forecasts that consumption will be practically flat worldwide. However, in some of the largest beef markets the decline will be steep. In Argentina, the agency forecasts a drop of more than 2%, while in the United States the drop would be 5%.

It can be difficult to accurately capture the drop in demand, because most analysts take meat production as the basis for their consumption estimates. Some of the best measures of declining interest in beef come from a combination of tracking retail sales and anecdotal information.

Weakening demand is putting major global beef producers such as JBS SA and Tyson Foods Inc. in check. The companies have also battled droughts that have depleted herds, rising input costs and growing investor pressure to produce meat more sustainably.

The pressure on the demand for beef is good news for the planet. By some measures, agriculture is responsible for more global greenhouse gas emissions than transportation, thanks in large part to livestock production.

At Made in Hackney, an east London vegan cookery school, founder Sarah Bentley says she has noticed an evolution in people’s behavior since she started the school a decade ago. Lentils, once considered passé and “a little hippy”, are now a great success among their customers. Cooking classes fill up quickly. Most of the students are not vegan or vegetarian, but are curious about affordable food, she explains.

“The price is something that cannot be discussedBentley said.

In the UK, purchases of beef in grocery stores and restaurants have fallen 5.8% from a year earlier, and sales of roast cuts are down 22%, according to data compiled by agricultural adviser AHDB. Steak purchases decreased 19%.

Many of the changes in consumption will seem subtle. People will substitute cuts and proteins: first beef, then pork and chicken. Dishes like spaghetti bolognese will have less meat in the sauce and will be filled with more tomato or water.

“Meat is something that suffers quite quickly, especially among lower income consumers”says Rupert Claxton, a Gira consultant who has studied the meat industry for two decades.

In USA, michael roberts, director of marketing for an Oak Park, Ill., nonprofit, saw his previous business as a consultant dry up during the pandemic, while his partner was diagnosed with brain cancer. As his income dwindled and health care costs skyrocketed, Roberts and his partner cut back on meat from four to two times a week, typically replacing beef and chicken with beans, lentils and rice.

“Red meat faded into the background”says Roberts, 57, who suffers from low iron levels. “It doesn’t really come home anymore. We have replaced it with many meatless foods, which can be healthy and there is nothing wrong with it. But the proteins are mainly beans, rice and lentils.”.

It is certainly too early to tell if the trend will continue globally. Many economists still expect consumption to increase in some places over the next decade as populations grow and consumers in Asia and other emerging markets consume more beef.

Returning to Argentina, per capita beef consumption is estimated to have reached 47.2 kilograms in 2022, according to meat industry group Ciccra. This contrasts with the current record of 68.7 in 2007. Chicken consumption, for its part, has grown to almost 46 kilograms from approximately 18 two decades ago, thanks to its competitive price, according to data from the Rosario Stock Exchange. .

It seems that its national identity has been stripped from a country that has traditionally competed with neighboring Uruguay for the title of the world’s top meat consumer per capita. A year ago, the national government said it would try to keep beef consumption above 50 kilos per person, through policies such as export quotas. But so far that target is proving unattainable and inflation is through the roof. Annual food inflation in Buenos Aires was 97.5% in December, according to the most recent data from the national statistics agency.

For consumers like Sosa, a father of three, the grill, once a point of great community pride, has become a painful reminder of what it once was.

“She never looked this abandoned“, said.