Elections in Nicaragua: 3 keys to the future of the country after the controversial triumph of Ortega

There were no surprises, but now there are several unknowns.

The President of Nicaragua, Daniel OrtegaThe 75-year-old was re-elected on Sunday for the fourth time in one of the most contested elections in Nicaraguan history and described as a “pantomime” by the United States because all of the main opposition candidates to Ortega are in jail.

More sanctions are to be expected from the international community and the free trade agreement between the country and the United States, its main trading partner, could even be affected.

The European Union (EU) also rejected the results, saying on Monday that the elections “complete the conversion of Nicaragua into an autocratic regime,” after Ortega detained opponents and business leaders, canceled rival parties and criminalized dissent for months.

Ortega, a former Marxist rebel who helped overthrow the family’s right-wing dictatorship Somoza In the late 1970s, he says he is defending his country against unscrupulous adversaries bent on overthrowing it with the help of foreign powers.

What are now the possible scenarios in the small Central American country? What can a new mandate hold for Ortega as president and his wife, Rosario Murillo, as vice president? What will be the role of the opposition? How will the international community react to Ortega’s challenges?

1. What can the opposition do?

Historically, the Nicaraguan opposition has been divided, although, according to political analyst Enrique Sáenz, the Ortega government’s repression has led them to create a common front.

“Curiously, Ortega has contributed to the union of the opposition. Here no one asks if they are from the left or from the right, the differences have been left behind and people are clear that here it is democracy against dictatorship, ”says Sáenz.

The Nicaraguan opposition has been divided since before Ortega returned to power in 2007. They differ mostly in how they deal with him.

Before the elections that culminated on Sunday, they also had abysmal differences regarding the single candidate to face Ortega and about the unified polling place. That changed when opposition parties were disqualified and potential rivals jailed.

Sáenz, critical of the ruling party, believes that the opposition, the majority in exile, imprisoned or semi-clandestine, must continue together to coordinate actions to pressure the government.

“There have already been approaches to seek unity and overcome mistrust and in some things we have worked in a coordinated way,” he told BBC Mundo this Monday. Juan Diego Barberena, one of the leaders of the Blue and White National Unity, Unab, one of the largest opposition groups and with many of its members imprisoned in Nicaragua.

“The ideological has been put aside. I think that now that the elections have passed, which was the main dividing stone, unity will be able to be achieved because it is vital to advance and corner the dictatorship, ”added Barberena.

2. What can be expected of the international community?

Political analyst Oscar René Vargas, a dissident Sandinista, says that Ortega will wait to see how “the winds blow” internationally throughout the month of November to decide what to do.

The majority of the international community this Monday rejected the elections, but Nicaragua has the support of Cuba, Venezuela, Russia and Iran, among others.

“He must want to shuffle a lot of cards. He will wait for the results of the elections in Honduras (where his ally Juan Orlando Hernández is seeking his second consecutive reelection on November 28) and the results of the municipal elections in Venezuela (on November 21) ”and then decide what to do, says Vargas .

But he is also going to “wait for the reaction of the international community to his re-election and the scope of the sanctions from the United States and Europe,” says the sociologist.

The United States passed a law last week to push for more sanctions against Ortega, including a possible revision of a free trade agreement by which 60% of Nicaraguan exports enter US markets.

But international analysts foresee a difficult situation for the president of the United States, Joe Biden.

Block the free trade agreement would further impoverish the country, one of the poorest in Latin America, and it would push more migrants to neighboring Costa Rica and the United States.

So far, Nicaraguans are a minority migrating north, among a large number of Hondurans, Salvadorans and Guatemalans, although the migratory flow has grown so far in 2021.

And on the other, experts argue, if the United States does nothing against Ortega, it could motivate the other presidents of the Northern Triangle of Central America to change the rules of democracy to perpetuate themselves in power.

But also an Ortega cornered by Western countries could throw himself into the arms of China (even though it has diplomatic relations with Taiwan), Iran or strengthen its relations with Russia.

Despite these dangers, “it is essential to redouble international pressure to demand the release of political prisoners and the reestablishment of democracy in Nicaragua,” the director of the Americas Division of Human Rights Watch said on his Twitter account. Jose Miguel Vivanco.

3. What will be Ortega’s relationship with businessmen and its impact on the economy?

After imposing himself in an overwhelming way without opposition, Ortega could call the big businessmen, with whom he maintained an alliance until 2018, to a national dialogue, according to the former opposition deputy Eliseo Núñez, to try to rebuild their relations and try to “freeze” the new ones. sanctions that are expected to be imposed by the international community.

“For that, he can release some political prisoners, so that the businessmen justify sitting down with Ortega in that way,” predicts Núñez.

Until the 2018 protests, in which there were 328 deaths, according to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), Ortega maintained an allied relationship with private companies. But the businessmen joined the demonstrations against their government and as of 2018 that rupture had effects for the country: the Gross Domestic Product fell for three consecutive years thereafter.

“The social mobilizations marked a turning point in the relationship between the private sector and the government ”, tells BBC Mundo Tiziano Breda, analyst for Central America of the organization International Crisis Group.

Four of the main representatives of the business community are now in prison accused of “conspiracy”, “requesting military interventions”, “terrorism”, “treason” and “money laundering”.

Although the former liberal deputy does not believe “that Ortega is willing to give much because he no longer seeks to perpetuate himself five more years in power, but to establish a family succession.”

Ortega’s vice president is his wife Rosario Murillo, who for many opponents in Nicaragua is the one who really holds power in the Central American country.

The signs indicate that the consensus model that operated in Nicaragua for so many years is, at least momentarily, fractured.

The question that many are asking is what will happen to the relationship between the business community and the government now that Ortega has ensured his continuity in power. (I)