Cargo flows from China to the busiest ports in the United States appear steady despite closures at home, and there are no imminent signs of a slowdown in demand from American consumers judging by the number of containers loaded with goods. that arrive at the port of Los Angeles, said its executive director, Gene Seroka.
The load is a leading indicator of the state of the economy, and “there’s nothing yet” to suggest the United States is headed toward a recession, Seroka told Guy Johnson and Alix Steel on Bloomberg Television on Monday. “There is nothing to indicate that consumer purchases are going to slow down anytime soon,” he said. “All signs from retailers are strong on continued shipment volume going forward.”
Seroka said the coming months “look solid” as retailers continue to replenish thin inventories, adding that he expects an earlier-than-normal peak season for the port, from late June to early July.
Businesses and consumers around the world are beginning to feel the economic fallout from the COVID-19 shutdowns in China. The significance of Beijing’s policy remains to be seen as other cities lock down to contain smaller outbreaks, adding to supply chain congestion, which has been hit by the war in Ukraine.
Disruptions are likely to peak in the United States in the next 30 to 60 days, said Nick Vyas, a professor of supply chain management at the University of Southern California.
“The impact is going to be huge,” Vyas said in an interview. “We still rely heavily on one country and its ability to supply us with most goods and services. As long as that is the case, our supply chains will continue to rely heavily on China and its COVID zero policy.”