Change of Russian military command in Ukraine, a reflection of Putin’s impatience?

Faced with military failure, a new person in charge. Russia on Wednesday chose its chief of staff to lead operations in Ukraine, reflecting Moscow’s impatience and bewilderment at a war it has failed to win, experts say.

Appointed at the end of October, the feared Sergei Surovikin will have held office for just three months. He was relegated to number two, behind Valeri Gerasimov, at the top of the Russian military hierarchy for a decade.

Both in Moscow and in the West, observers speak of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s impatience with Ukrainian resistance, Russian leadership’s confusion faced with unrealizable demands and the promise of a major offensive.

In Russia, and in the world, it is very unusual for a chief of the General Staff — Gerasimov retains this function — to dedicate himself to a particular operation. And it is that whoever coordinates, anticipates and evaluates the global threat cannot be the one who directs it on the ground.

“The last time this happened was in 1941 during the Nazi invasion.”, recalls a Moscow analyst, on condition of anonymity.

“In full battle”

Gerasimov, number two in the military hierarchy after the Defense Minister, carries the nuclear briefcase. “will he take it with him” to Ukraine? ironizes the expert.

In his opinion, this appointment “violates all existing rulesof the military command. A decision that shows that “things are not happening as planned”.

Indeed, after almost 11 months of offensive, Russia can only confirm the stagnation of the conflict.

Currently, the cities of Bakhmut and Soledar (east) are the scene of intense fighting. “It is not coherent to change the head of operations in the middle of a battle”, estimates for AFP Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean, a researcher on Russia at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

“This unbalances the entire hierarchy, from top to bottom. can’t be a good sign“, Add.

Experts agree that this decision could point to an acceleration of the Russian operation. For several months there has been talk of an offensive and a new mobilization is not excluded either, after a first call in September for 300,000 men.

“It is evident that this readjustment means that there are projects to expand the scale of combat”, affirms the independent Russian military expert Alexander Khramchijin, for whom the objective is to ensure effective control of the regions claimed by Russia (Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia).

For Mark Galeotti, from the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), this decision is the “confirmation, if needed, that major offensives are coming and that Putin admits that poor coordination is a problem”.

Loyalty

In the absence of recent military successes, Putin notes the waning effectiveness of his army. This leads to the “eternal Russian questions: ‘whose fault is it’ and ‘what should be done’”, comments Tatiana Stanovaya, a specialist in Russian elites, on Twitter.

But the appointment of Gerasimov does not seem to answer these questions.

“Everyone is surprised: Prigozhin’s men (the head of the Wagner private paramilitary group), military correspondents, and the army. A large number of highly informed people do not seem to understand the substance of this decision.“, Add.

Some see it as a matter of sending a man of unquestionable loyalty to Ukraine. But, for Galeotti, “If you don’t stop naming, changing, burning your stars, setting unrealistic demands and arbitrarily retrograding, this does not generate any loyalty.

With this new change in the military leadership, Putin will not reassure a part of the Moscow elite or Russian opinion.

Is increasing “a discontent about why we have not won this war”, admits Khramchijin, who accuses “bad estimates in the beginningof the conflict.

Other analysts also see in this hierarchical turn a sign of behind-the-scenes intrigues.

“The battle of communication around Soledar shows that each one, both the army and Wagner, tries to sweep home and take credit”, asserts Kastoueva-Jean.