Argentina’s opposition would inflict a resounding defeat to Peronism in legislative elections

According to the latest polls, Argentina’s center-right opposition would once again beat the Peronist ruling party in the midterm elections to be held on November 14, after a resounding victory in the September primaries.

The opposition leads most of the polls by at least eight points, which could lead Alberto Fernández’s government to lose its hegemony in the two chambers of the Argentine Congress and hinder the second stretch of his term that began in 2019.

According to the latest survey of Management & Fit, 33.4% of the 2,200 respondents between October 23 and 30 will vote for the opposition coalition Together for Change. 23.2% would favor the ruling Frente de Todos.

If the undecided were accounted for, the percentages would rise to 40% and 27.8%, respectively, which would imply a difference slightly higher than that achieved by Juntos por el Cambio in the primaries, which served as a broad nationwide survey.

The survey of Ricardo Rouvier & Associates, held between October 16 and 26 to 2,200 people, indicated that 42.1% will vote for the opposition, while 34.2% will support the ruling center-left.

“All the image indicators and expectations prior to the election indicated a great dissatisfaction on the part of the citizenry with the socioeconomic status and an anger provoked by the prolonged quarantines due to the pandemic“, said Rouvier in the statement.

“The orientations of the electorate currently follow the trends set in the PASO (primaries)”He added.

If the result of the September primary elections is maintained, the Government would lose control of the national Senate and the first minority in the Lower House, he explained. Mariel Fornoni, from Management & Fit.

After the defeat in September, Fernandez made changes in his cabinet of ministers and sought to re-boost economic activity and social plans. But the initiatives do not seem to offer results for the government so far.

In the province of Buenos Aires, the largest district in the country and where Peronism has historically prevailed, the opposition could achieve a resounding victory.

A poll released on Friday by the consultancy Giacobbe & Asociados grants a vote intention of 44.1% to the opposition candidate Diego Santilli compared to 35.8% of the ruling party Victoria Tolosa Paz in that district.

The country began a tepid economic recovery in 2021 after a three-year recession, amid high inflation and problems to seal an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to refinance a debt of US $ 45,000 million.

Political uncertainty led the local currency this week to fall in the marginal market to a record low of 200 pesos to the dollar.