War in Ukraine: 4 moments that marked the evolution of the conflict in 2022

By the end of 2022, 10 months and six days will have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine.

The conflict is currently at a standstill, although in this time both sides have accumulated victories and setbacks.

The Russians began advancing on several fronts, but Ukraine resisted and managed to recover many lost territories.

At the gates of 2023, the course of the war is full of questions.

Is Russia preparing a new offensive? Will Ukraine continue to resist with the help of the West? Will there be a peace agreement?

BBC World reviews 4 moments that defined the evolution of war in 2022 and that help to understand at what point both sides arrive at the new year.

1. Start of the invasion and first Russian advances

Under the euphemism of “special military operation” used by Vladimir PutinRussian troops invaded Ukraine on February 24.

They were first deployed throughout the northern zone and the areas closest to the capital, Kyiv. Several important cities suffered bombing, such as Kharkiv, the second most populous metropolis.

In a few days, on March 2, Russian troops captured the region and city of Khersona strategic point in the south.

Kherson is considered “the gate to Crimea”, the peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 after a referendum questioned by the West.

Its position west of the Dnieper River allowed Russia to create a land corridor between Crimea and areas held by Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk.

The Russian offensive was unrelentingly successful in the south, but in the north it was met with fierce Ukrainian resistance.

This managed to recover large areas around the capital. At the beginning of April, Russia abandoned its advance towards Kyivhe withdrew in the north and focused his efforts on controlling the east and south of the country.

His initial goal seemed to be to wipe out the entire Ukrainian territory and overthrow his government, but he had to rearm his strategy.

2. Concentration of the war in eastern Ukraine

The Donbas area in eastern Ukraine had already been in conflict since 2014 with a clash between Ukrainian government forces and Russian separatists.

In this area, comprised mainly by the regions of Luhansk and Donetsklives a significant Russian-speaking population and, before launching the invasion, Putin recognized all of them as independent of Ukraine.

At Donetsk, Russia captured the port city of Mariupol, thus connecting Crimea to all of the territory it controls in the east.

Between the end of spring and the beginning of summer, Russian troops consolidated their hold on this area.

At the end of September, Putin announced the annexation of around 15% of Ukraineincluding the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Zaporizhia and Kherson in the south, after a referendum widely questioned by the international community.

Several analysts interpreted this move as an attempt to stop Western aid to Ukrainian troops, which by then were beginning to inflict significant setbacks on the Russian forces.

3. The rapid Ukrainian counteroffensive

The surprise capacity of the Ukrainian resistance has been one of the hallmarks of these months of war.

First they forced the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv and then staged a lightning counter-offensive in which they recovered a good part of the territory lost in the first months of the invasion.

This advance took place especially in the east and south of the country, where Russia had achieved its greatest conquests.

In mid-September, Ukraine claimed to have recaptured the cities of Izyum and Kupianskeast of Kharkiv, two logistics centers used by Russia to supply its troops in Donbas.

The surprise factor was key in the advances. That and the clever use of Western weapons, especially British and American long-range missile platforms, used to destroy Russian supply lines, munitions dumps and command posts.

Perhaps the greatest success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive occurred on November 11, when it recaptured the city of Kherson and forced the withdrawal of Russian troops to the eastern side of the Dnieper Riverkey access to the Black Sea.

In addition to the strategic significance, retaking this city was a coup for the Ukrainian spirit.

Kherson had been the first major Ukrainian city taken by the Russians, and many saw this victory as a possible “beginning of the end of the war.”

4. Intensive Russian attacks and stalemate in the war

Russian and Ukrainian advances have come to a screeching halt in the last weeks. Ukraine’s military map has hardly changed since the recapture of Kherson.

Since then, the fiercest battles have been concentrated around Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region.

In all other positions, the Russian forces appear to be on the defensive. The onset of winter has slowed down Ukrainian operations on the ground, which are now waiting for more Western weapons.

Although there are no military advances, the Russian attacks against the main Ukrainian cities have intensified.

The bombings cause repeated power cuts throughout the country and in Kherson, the de facto front line of fire in the south, its residents flee a few weeks after it was liberated.

On Thursday, Ukraine said that Russia had launched more than 120 missiles against the population and civilian infrastructure in several cities.

Moscow has repeatedly denied that its missile targets are civilians, although Putin has admitted that his troops have hit energy facilities.

What will happen in 2023?

At this point, military analysts predict several possible scenarios for 2023.

For Michael Clarke, associate director of the Institute for Strategic Studies at the University of Exeter in the UK, the key will be how Russia’s offensive evolves in the spring.

Putin has admitted the mobilization of 50,000 new troops and the enlistment of another 250,000 for next year.

Will be a new challenge for the ukrainian resistanceto which various experts predict that it could further consolidate its reconquests on the ground.

However, it is not clear what victories, or defeats, could force both sides to try for peace.

“For a possible agreement, the demands of both sides must change. There is no evidence that it has happened or that it will happen any time soon,” says Barbara Zanchetta, of the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. (YO)