Resignation, elections or survival, the options of the British prime minister

Weaker than ever after the removal of most of her controversial tax measures, British Prime Minister Liz Truss is facing calls to resign.

These are four possible scenarios for the Conservative prime minister, who succeeded the controversial Boris Johnson just six weeks ago.

Resignation

At least four Conservative MPs publicly demanded the resignation of Truss, after the drastic changes in its fiscal policy. Many more, who spoke on condition of anonymity, believe his term is over.

Following the dismissal of his finance minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, who was replaced by Jeremy Hunt, his old rival in the Downing Street race, Truss he might come to the conclusion that his authority is irretrievably damaged and that he must resign.

In that case, he would remain in office until a successor was chosen. For this, a new internal process of the Conservative Party would have to be organized, less than two months after the end of the previous one.

However, the formation could avoid new and lengthy fratricidal battles if it were united behind a successor chosen by consensus.

Theresa May succeeded David Cameron in 2016 – following the Brexit referendum – after all her rivals withdrew.

But Truss She has given no sign that she is ready to step down, and her spokesman stressed on Monday that she remains focused on her “commitments.”

vote of no confidence

Current British Conservative Party rules protect any new leader from an internal vote of no confidence in the first 12 months of their term.

After this period, 15% of the 357 conservative deputies -that is, 54- should send a letter to trigger said vote.

However, the powerful 1922 Committee, responsible for the internal organization of the Conservative parliamentary group, has the ability to change the rules. It remains to be seen what the threshold would be for a motion of censure to be triggered.

And in case of defeat, Truss she would immediately lose the leadership of the party, but would remain prime minister until a successor was chosen.

The committee would have to set the rules for this process to elect a new leader, who would be the third in a year, the fifth since 2016.

But MPs appear reluctant to enter a new, lengthy competition decided by party members, and may back a unity candidate if they can agree.

truss survive

Although his credibility is badly damaged, Truss he could get some wiggle room to stay in office, thanks to his new, more centrist finance minister, Jeremy Hunt.

The abandonment of the bulk of its economic measures seems to calm the markets, giving it some stability to get back on track.

Truss He is due to meet with the different factions of the party this week, as well as receive his top ministers in Downing Street on Monday night, to try to allay their concerns.

Hunt will detail on October 31 how the executive expects to reduce debt in the medium term, another opportunity to reassure the markets and try to get the economy back on track.

anticipated legislative

The next general elections are scheduled for the end of 2024, but the government has the possibility of anticipating them.

Nevertheless, Truss would need the support of a majority of deputies.

Under Britain’s unwritten constitution, they have three ways to express their lack of confidence in the prime minister, including passing a no-confidence motion or voting against the budget.

In that case, the head of government is expected to resign or ask the king to dissolve Parliament, synonymous with legislative elections.

In the polls, the Labor opposition is at its best for decades, with some studies predicting the Conservatives would lose hundreds of seats.

It therefore seems unlikely that enough Conservative MPs will join the opposition to trigger an election that is likely to be disastrous for a Conservative Party in power for 12 years.