The five challenges of Carlos III in the face of the uncertain future of the British monarchy

While carefully following the operation unicorn and the London Bridge operation, the plans designed for the death of Elizabeth II, King Charles III of England faces the beginning of a new stage at the head of the British monarchy. In his first speech as king, citing Shakespeare, he said that the queen was “a model for all living princes” and claimed to be aware of the great inheritance she received, as well as her duties and responsibilities.

But his arrival on the throne, at the age of 73 and after seven decades of his mother’s reign, raises many questions about the future of the institution, the country and its relationship with the world: how will the monarch deal with the independence aspirations of some territories like Scotland or some of those that make up the Commonwealth? How will he achieve the image of stability and continuity that his mother has given to the United Kingdom, outside and inside the country, thanks above all to her neutrality and discretion?

1. The survival of the Commonwealth

Of the challenges that the new king will have to face, the most uncertain is that of the survival of a significant Commonwealth. Currently, the organization is made up of 14 former British colonies and protectorates, independent and semi-independent, but which respect the figure of the monarch.

Keeping these nations united is a great challenge, and Carlos III, aware of this, received Patricia Scotland, the Secretary of the Commonwealth, in audience last Sunday.

Likewise, although it seems early to make decisions, the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, one of those 14 nations, has already announced that he will hold a referendum to become a republic in the next three years, after the death of the queen.

It is hard to imagine Australia, Canada and New Zealand keeping an English monarch as head of state for more decades.

2. Scottish independence

The most important challenge at the national level for Carlos III is to prevent the independence of Scotland, although that does not depend only on him. Unfriendly manners could encourage separation, but the 2014 referendum already provided for independence with Elizabeth II as head of the new state.

Despite the fact that thousands of people waited for hours to see the arrival of the coffin of the queen at the Palace of Holyroodhouse, in Edinburgh, and the proclamation of Charles as king, there is a strong republican tendency in Scotland.

According to the polls, 49% of Scots would support independence compared to 51% who would reject it. However, republic and independence are not united, and currently, 42% believe that the monarchy is good for the country compared to only 22% who consider it bad.

The key to Scotland’s new relations with Charles III may lie in how the monarch acts and what he says, and whether he maintains political neutrality, like his predecessor.

Charles III met with the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, at the Palace of Holyroodhouse before visiting the Scottish Parliament. royal.uk

3. A discreet style

One of the king’s greatest challenges is to combat his inclination to express his own opinions (he has already promised to give up his “activism”), to become the mortar of a society that, like all others, is becoming more and more polarized.

One of the successes of Isabel II was to go very unnoticed in politics. She was very careful about any word she spoke and, in fact, we don’t really know her opinion on public issues.

Charles of England, however, has spoken on multiple occasions on issues such as climate change or social inequality –far from his mother’s neutrality–, perhaps because he was not the monarch and was not obliged to do so. In addition to the difficulty of obtaining it, there is the paradox that the neutrality required by the position may prevent him from continuing to promote causes that would bring him closer to the younger generations.

4. Approach to the ‘commons’

The other challenge of a personal nature for Carlos III is to get closer to the “commons”, something complicated given his education in privilege and in the context of English classism.

We saw him during the proclamation ceremony, held at St. James’s Palace, when signing his appointment, he gestured to one of his assistants to remove one of the inkwells. The moment went viral on social networks and was branded as elitist, and, as far as can be predicted, it will not be the only such gesture of his mandate.

5. Stability reference

Basically, and to meet all the above challenges, Carlos III must aspire to become, as his mother did, a benchmark for stability, in a world currently in political and economic turmoil, with a Brexit that amplifies the difficulties even more.

The discretion of Isabel II gave continuity to the country and has been the anchor in the moments of greatest success and also in those of greatest economic and political crisis. With a much shorter reign, it will be necessary to see if Carlos III manages to provide that stability.

Although the new king has improved his image in recent years, he does not have the affection that Elizabeth II, a figure of consensus and respected by most Britons, earned.

Carlos III transmits a little more solidity than when he was a prince and his initial speech is hopeful, but we will have to wait to see if he truly follows the example of his mother. (YO)

• Emily J Blasco
• Director of the Global Affairs Center, University of Navarra