Dementia cases could triple by 2050 in those over 40

The world could go from having 57 million to 153 million people with dementia in 2050, almost triple, but it could be reduced if risk factors such as obesity, tobacco consumption, or low educational level were taken into account. It is the conclusion that a study from the University of Washington (USA) that publishes this Thursday the magazine The Lancet, and that it has analyzed dementia cases among adults over 40 years of age in 195 countries, in addition to forecasting what the situation will be by 2050.

According to him, in 2019 there were 57 million cases of dementia and in 2050 it is expected that there will be 153 millionYes, but there are important differences depending on the territory. In the case of Western Europe, cases of dementia may rise by 74%, while in the Asia-Pacific area this increase is reduced to 53%. On the other hand, the highest increase can be seen in North Africa and the Middle East – up to 367% -, as well as in sub-Saharan Africa – up to 357% -, the magazine adds.

The age rate will be similar

For Spain, the study foresees that we will go from having 826,686 people (2019) to one and a half million in 2050, an increase of 83%, although in proportion to the population the number of cases will be 4.4% lower.

The main factor that will contribute to this increase is due to population growth and aging, according to the scientific journal. In fact, the study points out that proportion of these cases with respect to the population of that age will remain stable, since it foresees an average increase in 0,1% (technically called the standardized age rate). As we see in the following graph, in most Western European countries the rate of disease by age will be lower.

However, in other more impoverished areas of the world, such as sub-Saharan Africa, the increase in the rate will be between 3 and 8%, or in countries such as Bolivia, Peru or Ecuador, where an increase of 6-8 is expected. 9%.

Obesity and tobacco, enemies to avoid

However, there are other risk factors that may play a role and that are controllable if the health authorities of each country take measures to stop them.

On the one hand, the study highlights that a high blood sugar, obesity, or tobacco they can contribute to making the situation worse. On the other, a improvement in access to education could reduce by 6.2 million dementia cases globally.

Consulted by the EFE Agency, the experts in charge of the investigation highlight the importance of prevention and control of risk factors for “prevent dementia or delay its progression”, as pointed out by the study’s lead author, Emma Nichols, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington (USA).

The Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias are currently the seventh leading cause of death worldwide, according to data from the World Health Organization, as well as one of the most important causes of dependency among older people worldwide, the study adds.

More in women than in men

In addition, research indicates that dementia affects more women than men and that this pattern will increase in 2050. In 2019, the number of women with dementia exceeded men by a ratio of 100 to 69, apparently due to genetic factors . In 2050, the study predicts that 30.5% of women over 85 will suffer from this disease, compared to 23.5% of men.

The reasons that contribute to this have to do, in part, and points out the study, with the greater longevity of women, although the previous previous evidence also already noted possible biological differences between the two sexes related to Alzheimer’s disease.