Of the elections on the 2024 calendar, the biggest implications for global stability will be held in Taiwan: on January 13, a new president and parliament will be elected to rule for the next four years. Relevant domestic policy issues are at stake, as well as crucial strategic interests for both China and the United States.

Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory and has expressed a willingness to reclaim it, even though Communist China has never ruled the country. The United States, with strategic ambiguity, does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, but assists the government militarily and supports sectors opposed to unification.

Why Taiwan’s presidential elections are important for regional peace

The elected authorities will face a critical moment whose resolution depends not only on the survival of Taiwan’s democracy and territorial integrity, but also on the regional stability of the Indo-Pacific and global peace.

In the 1990s, Taiwan completed its transition from an authoritarian regime to a representative, presidential, multi-party democracy. Taiwan’s political parties can be classified along a continuum from pro-unification with China to pro-Taiwan independence.

Elections in Taiwan that will mark the fate of the world

Two political camps are clearly defined: the blue (pro-unification) and the green (pro-independence), the first organized around the nationalist KMT party (Kuomintang), which ruled as bachelor party between 1949 and 1996, the year of the first direct presidential elections.

In 1949, after losing the civil war against the Chinese communists, the KMT and its leader Chiang Kai-shek took refuge in Taiwan, where they began their hegemony. The repression of opponents was systemic and the ‘White Terror’ policy was protected by the sanction of martial law in force until 1987. The KMT’s claim to represent all of China was stymied by a United Nations resolution in 1971 by granting that status to communist China. .

From then on, China began its policy of international intimidation and isolation of Taiwan with a view to its annexation. Paradoxically, the KMT and its followers, who fiercely fought against communism and were defeated by it, are susceptible to eventual unification under Chinese rule.

On the green front, the center of gravity is occupied by the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party), a center-left party founded in 1986 that promotes Taiwan’s sovereignty and has intensified the internationalization of the Taiwanese party since its return to power in 2016. independence cause.. This ended official dialogue on Beijing’s part and continued the threats of forced annexation.

Taiwan’s fate is our future

In addition to the two-party DPP and KMT, a new political party, the TPP (People’s Party), is participating in the 2024 election campaign as third way. In a tight race, Lai Ching-te, a member of the ruling DPP party and outgoing national vice president, is the favorite candidate according to polls. With extensive political experience, he is a fierce defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty. Are ticket The election is Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States until November.

Second place in the polls is taken by Hou Yu-ih, the KMT candidate. It promises to secure Taiwan’s sovereignty, but through negotiations, consensus and compromise with China. Opinion polls place former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je in third place, who owes his popularity among young voters to his unconventional campaign and his middle-of-the-road stance on how to manage relations with China .

The fragmentation of the opposition (KMT and TPP), despite advanced negotiations, prevented the formation of an electoral coalition that would certainly have left the DPP without a chance. None of the elected parties will win a parliamentary majority, a fact unprecedented since 2008. Although the DPP is favored in the presidential elections, it is expected to lose the parliamentary majority, gaining only 46 of the 113 seats. stake. The KMT and TPP could negotiate a parliamentary coalition.

There will undoubtedly be more conflict and multiple negotiations in Parliament. Domestic issues such as labor reforms, housing and education will be part of the parliamentary agenda, as will trade relations with China. Likewise, Parliament approves the budget and confirms the appointments of the executive branch to the judicial and administrative control branches.

On the other hand, from a geopolitical perspective, the outcome of the elections will change the dynamics of relations between Taiwan, China and the United States. Although the DPP and the KMT take different positions on the relationship with China, both candidates have spoken out in favor of maintaining the relationship status quo and resume dialogue to maintain peace in the Strait.

To this end, the DPP and the KMT have outlined their strategies. The DPP favors strengthening relations with the United States and its allies, while promoting military deterrence by increasing defense spending. He does not rule out dialogue with China, but rejects the so-called ‘1992 Consensus’, which recognizes the existence of ‘one China’, although each side has different interpretations of what that means.

The KMT promises to reduce tensions by reopening dialogue with China and deepening trade exchanges on the basis that the two sides of the strait belong to one country. The KMT has emphasized this vote as a choice between “peace or war,” while the DPP has emphasized a choice between “democracy or autocracy.” Both sides suggest that the other’s victory will lead to Taiwan’s demise, either by provoking a Chinese attack or by accelerating unification.

For its part, China has made it clear which candidate it prefers. Describing the DPP as “separatist,” the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) broke off dialogue with the DPP government in 2016 and intensified its aggression with trade sanctions, cyber attacks, disinformation, incursions into Taiwanese airspace and military exercises in the Strait.

Faced with another victory for the DPP, China has several options ranging from blockade to invasion, although the most likely option will be to continue with its current strategy of political, military, economic and psychological exhaustion. A KMT victory could ease tensions, but in the short term. An improvement in relations between the two sides could become the ‘Trojan horse’ for Taiwan’s annexation to China.

Xi-Jinping stated in his New Year’s speech that reunification is inevitable. To achieve this, the country will need a well-organized, diversified civil society committed to the values ​​of freedom, such as Taiwanese society, which has been able to mobilize, resist and stand up strong democratic institutions building to defeat authoritarianism. (OR)

Gabriela Ippolito-O’Donnell has a PhD in Political Science from the University of Cambridge, professor at the School of Humanities at the National University of San Martin, Argentina, and collaborator of the Sinic Analysis project in www.cadal.org