Miguel Ángel Martinez Meucci *

What happened to the ‘pink tide’? The results of the most important electoral processes that took place in Latin America in 2023 seem to reinforce the dominant trend of this century, which generally victory for the opposition. What some analysts interpret essentially as a sign of instability, for others represents the alternation inherent in a given given democratic consolidation, despite the many obstacles still facing democracy in the region. In any case, it is necessary to examine the specific situation of each country separately.

Liberals and conservatives

Argentina There is always a surprise in politics, both because of the factors that remain inexplicably constant and because of the factors that seem to appear out of nowhere. The controversial libertarian Javier Milei finally completed his unusual rise to the presidency. He obtained this thanks to a groundbreaking speech and without the initial support of a strong party organization. He challenged the niche of the liberal opposition to their current partners in the Together for Change coalition.

It is worth adding the result of the Parliamentary elections and provincial, in which the Liberals received broad political support, potentially allowing them to begin the reform of the policies that have brought Argentina to the brink of collapse hyperinflation.

ParaguayOn the other hand, it is the exception that confirms the rule of alternation that has been imposed in presidential elections in the region for more than a decade. The hegemony of the conservatives was reaffirmed Colorado Party. Not only the official candidate, the economist and former Minister of Finance, achieved the presidency Santiago Peñabut colorados also won the majority in the senate and 14 of 17 governorates.

On the other side, inside Chili the long and controversial process continues component started in December 2019. A convention, now with a predominance of the conservatives Republican party by José Antonio Kast, prepared a new proposal and the text submitted to a plebiscite on December 17 had a paradoxical result. The same electorate that approved a constitutional amendment rejected the final project. This strengthens the position of those who argue for maintaining the validity of the current constitution.

No Red October

Ecuador experienced an intense election year. It started in February with a plebiscite on eight constitutional issues and the election of 5,660 local authorities. The results ended with the defeat of the position defended by President Guillermo Lasso, overwhelmed by the left-wing opposition and the advance of the posters of the medicine. In May, Lasso activated the constitutional mechanism of the cross death. He thus called presidential elections for August 20, shocked by the murder of the candidate Fernando Villavicencio, critic of Correismo and drug trafficking. The winner was Daniel Noboa, a 35-year-old businessman, son of multiple presidential candidate Álvaro Noboa.

The following week, on October 22, the Liberal candidate Maria Corina Machado was expressly imposed on the opposition primaries Venezuelan. He obtained 93% of the votes counted. In a process that was conducted against all expectations, organized by the Civil society and dodging the obstacles of autocratic regime under Nicolás Maduro, more than 2.5 million voters have been mobilized inside and outside Venezuela to cast and count your votes manually. With this gesture of civil resistance, Venezuelans have set a path to confront the complex 2024 presidential election.

And on October 29, the regional elections in Colombia. The collapse of the front that consolidated the controversial president in power Gustavo Petro fueled the already remarkable fragmentation of the Colombian political system. This ensured that no fewer than 35 parties participated in the elections. The ruling party has won 9 out of 32 departments. Only three of the winning candidates belong to the Historical Pact. On the other hand, Petrism was defeated in the most important municipalities, including Bogotá. In this way, the loss of popular support in his first year in office becomes clear.

Mexico and Guatemala

Elections were held in two Mexican states in June. While in northern Coahuila the PRI succeeded in retaining the governorship in the state of Mexico, the most populous in the country, the MORENA candidate, Delfina Gómez, ended almost a century of the PRI hegemony. On the other hand, the ruling party’s primaries inaugurated the capital’s former head of government. Claudia Sheinbaumas standard bearer of MORENA for the 2024 presidential elections. The opposition Frente Amplio, which unites the PAN, the PRI and the PRD, will have the senator as its candidate Xochitl Galvez.

In Guatemalathe victory of the social democrat Bernardo Arevalo She was accompanied by all kinds of people during the presidential elections obstacles. His party, the Semilla Movement, is accused of fraud, irregularities and registration with forged signatures. The Public Prosecution Service has suspended its legal personality. Meanwhile, the country remains shaken by the ongoing crisis popular protests. He Permanent Council of the OAS expressed concern in its resolution of 15 November about the ‘excessive’ legalization of the electoral process.

In short, while you’re inside South America a general advance of the center right is observed Mexico and Central America The left resists or moves forward. Although in most cases there is a democratic change of governments, the Guatemalan case is worrying because of the legal obstacles imposed. And in Venezuela, democratic forces are waging a civil war which still awaits a major outcome in 2024. (OR)

*Text originally published in Political Dialogue

Miguel Ángel Martínez Meucci is a professor of political studies. Advisor and analyst for various organizations. Doctorate in Political Conflicts and Pacification Processes from the Complutense University of Madrid.