What is Brazil’s position in the conflict between Venezuela and Guyana over Essequibo, the region with which the country borders?

From its northern border, Brazil is closely watching the latest movements of Venezuela and Guyana in their conflict over the Essequibo, an oil-rich region that has been governed and controlled by the Guyanese government for decades.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said on Tuesday that this will happen in 2024 Guyana will visit, where he will participate in the meeting that will bring together the countries that make up the Caribbean Community (Caricom).

The announcement of the visit comes at a time of rising tensions between Venezuela and Guyana, after a majority of Venezuelans voted in favor of annexing the Essequibo region to their country in a controversial referendum last Sunday.

President Nicolás Maduro requested the approval of a law to declare the creation of a Venezuelan state in Essequibo and a “comprehensive defense zone of Guayana Esequiba” in the city of Tumeremo.

Rising tensions prompted Brazil, which borders Venezuela and Guyana, to strengthen the presence of its troops on the border.

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“The Brazilian Ministry of Defense has been monitoring the situation. Defensive actions have intensified in the country’s northern border region. promoting a greater military presence,” Brazilian government sources said the week before the referendum.

“Fear of war”

Brazil confirmed the sending 28 armored vehicles to Roraima state, that is alert because it shares a border with countries in conflict.

Although the deployment of these vehicles was already planned for operations against illegal mining in the area, the Brazilian Ministry of Defense has announced that they will be available in the event of any escalation of the conflict.

Brazil wants to send a clear message to Venezuela about the impossibility of an escalation of the crisis with Guyana, according to diplomatic sources consulted by BBC News Brazil.

The president of Brazil assured last Sunday that he hopes there is ‘common sense’.

“What South America doesn’t need is confusion. We can’t keep thinking about fighting. I hope that common sense will prevail on the part of Venezuela and Guyana,” said Lula da Silva.

Although the government says it does not believe the escalation of the conflict will end in a military confrontation, Venezuela’s position worries the Brazilian Foreign Ministry because it tradition of peaceful resolution of conflicts areas in South America.

“Humanity must fear war. War only happens when common sense is lacking. A conversation is worth more than a war,” the Brazilian president told the press.

“If there is anything we need to grow and improve the lives of our people, it is to keep our heads down, work hard to improve the lives of our people and not think about fighting, not about making up stories,” he added.

Brazil’s position

Healthcare is not new for Brazil.

As early as November 9, the presidents of Brazil and Guyana spoke via video conference and, according to a Brazilian diplomat consulted by BBC News Brazil, the Guyanese president expressed his concerns about the referendum in Venezuela to his Brazilian counterpart.

Two weeks later, on November 22, Brazil decided to send Ambassador Celso Amorim to Caracashis special adviser on international affairs, who met Nicolás Maduro in the Venezuelan capital.

According to the same sources, during the meeting Maduro tried to reassure Amorim, who showed his concern over the issue and reinforced his position that the dispute should be resolved peacefully.

A few days later, members of Brazil’s Foreign and Defense Ministries began jointly analyzing the crisis in the region.

Based on this analysis, the Ministry of Defense published a note on Wednesday ahead of the referendum announcing the intensification of defensive actions at the border.

Lula and the Guyanese president were scheduled to meet a few days ago in Dubai, the Emirates. United Arab Emirates, during their visit to the country on the occasion of the UN Climate Summit (COP 28), but the bilateral meeting did not take place.

Brazil and Guyana – which have had diplomatic relations since 1968, two years after the former British colony declared independence – have had a good relationship for some time.

Brazil and Guyana share a border of 1,605 km with a land connection via the bridge over the Tacutu River, inaugurated in 2009, and which is crucial for communication between the two countries.

The border between Venezuela and the Essequibo region consists mainly of dense forests, making the movement of troops and armored vehicles difficult.

According to Augusto Teixeira, visiting professor at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, the few areas that would be available on the border for a Venezuelan incursion only allow the use of infantry forces of a few meters.

According to the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, relations between Brazil and Guyana deepened from the 1990s as the growing number of Brazilians settled in the neighboring country.

Brazil estimates that some Essequibo is home to 300,000 people and that a conflict in the area could have economic and social consequences in nearby Brazilian regions.

An element that also worries the Brazilian government is the uncertainty surrounding the decision-making process within the Maduro government.

Shortly after last Friday, the International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela not to take any measures “that modify the current situation” in the territory of Essequibo. Maduro wrote on social networks that he does not recognize the court as an instrument to resolve the dispute with Guyana and again called on the population to participate in the referendum held on Sunday.

“They cannot attack the right of the Venezuelan community to express themselves through voting,” Maduro said at the time.

The fear among some of Brazilian diplomacy is that Maduro is taking political advantage of the dispute over the Essequibo in the run-up to the 2024 presidential elections.

The military response

International relations experts interviewed by BBC News Brazil are divided over the possibility that the Essequibo crisis will lead to a armed conflict.

For researcher Lucas Carlos Lima, from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, the costs for Venezuela are too high to make this option feasible.

“If we do that, Venezuela would violate international law and could provoke different reactions within the international community and countries in the region,” Lima said.

Diplomats interviewed by BBC News Brazil said Lula’s government has sent clear messages to the Venezuelan government about the impossibility of escalating the crisis with Guyana.

“Our common commitment to the integration of South America is to reiterate to each of our twelve countries our commitment to the peaceful resolution of disputes,” Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said.

For Lucas Carlos Lima, Brazil has tried to prevent a rise in tensions in the region.

“Brazil also has part of its borders with Guyana determined by arbitration and does not want these types of peaceful agreements to become a dispute,” the specialist said. (JO)