How Putin can benefit from the war between Israel and Hamas

It’s tempting to see Vladimir Putin as a James Bond-style villain sitting in front of a giant control panel, in a mountain hideout, wreaking havoc around the world.

Push a button and there are riots in the Balkans.

Press another and the Middle East explodes.

It’s tempting… but probably inaccurate. It exaggerates the global influence of the Kremlin leader.

Yes, Russia has ties to Hamas and has become a close ally of Iran. According to the United States, Moscow and Tehran now have a fully developed defense partnership.

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But that does not mean that Moscow had direct involvement in or prior knowledge of Hamas’s attack on Israel.

“We do not believe that Russia was involved in any way,” Israel’s ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Ben Zvi, told Kommersant newspaper this week, adding that It was ‘complete nonsense’. suggesting there was a Russian connection to the atrocities committed by Hamas in Israel.

“I have not seen any evidence of direct delivery of Russian weapons to Hamas, nor of Russian military training of Hamas operatives,” said Hanna Notte, an expert on Russia and the Middle East at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, based in Berlin. .

“It is true that Russia has a long relationship with Hamas. Russia has never declared Hamas a terrorist organization. Hamas delegations Last year and this year they were in Moscow.

“But I would not infer from that that there has been broad military support. Although we know that Russian-made systems reached the Gaza Strip, probably via Sinai [en Egipto] and with Iranian help.”

In other words, President Putin didn’t press a button that said “war in the Middle East.”

But are you willing to take advantage of the situation?

Absolute. And this is how he will do it.

Ukraine distraction

As escalating violence in the Middle East dominates the international news agenda, Moscow is counting on dramatic headlines from Israel to divert attention from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

But it’s about more than just changing the news cycle. Russian authorities also hope that, due to the situation in the Middle East, some of the Western arms supplies to Ukraine will be diverted to Israel.

“I think this crisis will directly influence the conduct of the special military operation [en Ucrania]“Russian diplomat Konstantin Gavrilov told the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia.

“Ukrainian supporters will be distracted by the conflict in Israel. That does not mean that the West will abandon the Ukrainians. But the amount of military aid will decrease… and the course of the operation could swing sharply in favor [de Rusia]. “

An illusion on Russia’s part? Very possible.

“We can and will support Israel, just as we support Ukraine,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a meeting of NATO defense ministers.

But a prolonged conflict in the Middle East will test the United States’ ability to do so simultaneously supporting two allies in two separate wars.

Russia, the mediator?

Russia is trying to increase its role in the Middle East by presenting itself as a potential peacemaker.

The country has played that role before, joining previous international efforts to end conflicts in the region.

“Russia can and will play a role in solving this problem [del conflicto]President Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peksov said. “We maintain contacts with the parties in conflict.”

During a visit to Moscow this week, the Iraqi Prime Minister called on President Putin to announce “an initiative for a real ceasefire” in the region.

Russia the peacemaker? That’s a hard sell.

After all, this is the country that launched a full-scale invasion against its neighbor. After almost twenty months, Russia’s war in Ukraine has caused death and destruction on a scale that has shocked the world.

Furthermore, saying that “you can and will play a role” in achieving peace does not guarantee that those involved in the conflict will accept you as a mediator.

Moscow has long been interested in the Middle East. The Soviet Union took a pro-Arab stance, while Israel forged a close bond with the United States.

For years, state-sponsored anti-Semitism was a feature of life in the Soviet Union.

After the collapse of the Soviet empire Russian relations with Israel have improved, partly due to the influx of more than a million Jews to Israel from the former Soviet republics.

But recently, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has drawn closer to Israel’s enemies, especially Iran, straining Russian-Israeli relations.

Condemn the United States

The Kremlin sees here an opportunity to do what it has done many times before: blame the United States.

Since Hamas’s attack on Israel, Vladimir Putin’s central message has been that “this is an example of the failure of US policy in the Middle East.”

It fits into the general pattern of attacks in Moscow what he calls “American hegemony.”

And presenting the United States as the main villain in the Middle East is the Kremlin’s way of strengthening Russia’s position in the region at Washington’s expense.

So far I have talked about the potential benefits for Russia from developments in the Middle East. But there are also dangers.

“Carefully calibrated instability is what Russia benefits from the most,” says Hanna Notte.

“If this crisis diverts attention from Ukraine – and there is a real risk of that happening, given Israel’s importance in the US domestic political context – yes, Russia could be a beneficiary in the short term”.

But Russia would not benefit from a war that engulfs the entire region, including Iran, which supplies weapons and financing to Hamas, Notte says.

“Russia does not want all-out war between Israel and Iran. If things go this way, and it becomes clear that the United States is firmly on Israel’s side, I think Russia will see no choice but to move closer to the Iranian side. “I’m not sure I want to do it.”

“I think Putin still values ​​his ties with Israel. I don’t think Russian diplomacy wants to enter that space where they have to take sides. But the more this conflict intensifies, the more pressure they may feel,” says the expert. (JO)