Why so many high-ranking officials and soldiers ‘disappear’ in Xi Jinping’s China

Xi Jinping trusted and preferred them. Now they seem to have fallen out of favor.

In recent months, the disappearances from public life of several senior Chinese officials have led to intense speculation about whether Xi Jingping has begun a purge, especially of those positions linked to the military.

The latest person who seems to have fallen from grace is Defense Minister Li Shangfu who hasn’t been seen in public for a few weeks.

Although his absence was not initially considered unusual, scrutiny was heightened when a senior US diplomat noticed the ‘disappearance’.

A Reuters cable later said that General Li, who He oversaw the acquisition of weapons for the People’s Army The Liberation Army (PLA) was investigated for purchasing military equipment.

His ‘absence’ comes weeks after two high-ranking officials of the Rocket Forces (the military arm that controls nuclear missiles) and a military court judge were dismissed.

Now new rumors are doing the rounds some commanders of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) – which controls the armed forces – are also under investigation.

There has been virtually no official explanation for these expulsions, other than ‘health reasons’, which have given rise to all kinds of speculation.

The main theory is that authorities are cracking down on corruption in the People’s Liberation Army.

The armed forces are on high alert: in July they made an unusual appeal to the population asking for information about the corruption of the past five years.

According to BBC Monitoring, Xi appears to have begun a new round of inspections since April.

He has been making these past few months five visits to military bases.

Little transparency in military spending

Corruption has long been a problem in the military, especially since China began liberalizing its economy in the 1970s, says James Char, a researcher at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore who has studied the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (PCC) and the military studies.

Every year, China spends more than 1 trillion yuan on defense, part of which goes to procurement, which cannot be disclosed in their entirety for reasons of national security. This lack of transparency is exacerbated by China’s centralized one-party system.

Unlike the kind of public scrutiny to which the militaries of other countries are subject, The Chinese armed forces are under the exclusive supervision of the CCPChar noted.

And while Xi has had some triumphs when it counts moderate corruption within the armed forces and restore its reputation to some extent, “eradicating corruption is a Herculean, if not impossible, task” because it would require “systemic redesigns that, I fear, the authoritarian state remains reluctant to impose,” added the expert added.

“Until the CCP government is willing to implement a proper legal system that is no longer self-controlled, these purges will continue to occur.”

Paranoia?

But the disappearances can also be attributed to an increasing paranoia among the Chinese government at a time when the relationship with the United States is becoming increasingly complicated.

In July, a far-reaching counterintelligence law came into effect in China, giving authorities more power and space to conduct investigations.

Shortly afterwards, China’s Ministry of State Security publicly encouraged citizens to help them combat espionage activities.

The Disappearance of General Li follows that of Foreign Minister Qin Gangwhose dismissal in July also caused speculation to reach a fever pitch.

This week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Qin was under investigation an alleged extramarital relationship from which a child was born in the United States.

“Having an affair is not a disqualification in elite circles.” [del Partido Comunista]but have one with someone suspected of having ties to foreign intelligence services and have a child on the passport of your main geopolitical rival, if not enemy, he could now become one,” said Chinese analyst Bill Bishop.

There is also speculation that Xi is under party pressure to clean up internally as China suffers from a slowing post-Covid economy and rising youth unemployment.

In the Chinese political system, Xi is not only the president of China, but also the supreme leader of the military.

In a sense, the disappearances are a sign of that instability in Xi’s leadership.

Xi’s leadership

Analysts also point out that both General Li and Qin were not only ministers, but ministers They occupy higher positions as state councilors, and they had Xi’s favor.

Therefore, his sudden fall could be seen as a lack of judgment on the part of the Chinese president.

If you see the disappearances as a political purge, then the fact that he had to carry one out so quickly after consolidating power at last year’s party congress, where he successfully neutralized potential rival factions and joined forces with his allies to shut down key committees brought together, a bad image. .

But others think so another show of strength by Xi.

Son of a purged PCC official, Xi is known for his public crackdown on corruption, which doubles as political purges aimed at rooting out his enemies, analysts say.

Since Mao Zedong no other Chinese leader has matched Xi’s repressive measures.

It is estimated that they have reached thousands of commanders over the years, targeting both low-level and high-ranking officials.

All starting with his ‘tigers and flies’ campaign launched shortly after taking office in 2013.

He also targeted the armed forces and had dismissed more than a hundred senior officers in 2017.. At the time, state news agency Xinhua stated in an article that this figure “far exceeded the number of generals killed in the wars to create the new China.”

But the main question turns around on the signal they transmit the latest disappearances and their ultimate impact.

Absorbing costs

Analysts say they would create a climate of fear in the military and government. And while this may be the desired outcome to guarantee the law, it is It would have a demoralizing effect.

After years of systematically rooting out those who have fallen from his favor and filling key positions with people loyal to him, this could mean that Xi has surrounded himself with men who only say yes.

The risk of groupthink is the “real instability” of Xi’s leadership, as it could negatively impact China’s national security and foreign policy, Char noted.

In fact, the disappearances occurred during a tense period in the Taiwan Strait, where China has sent more warships and military aircraft in recent weeks.

Any cuts to foreign policy communications and defense diplomacy would be “particularly worrying.” “may cause accidents and controlling escalation may become more difficult”said Ian Chong, a non-resident fellow at the think tank Carnegie China.

However, other experts believe that this is so China’s military leadership is strong enough enough to resist the replacement of some high-ranking officials and point out that the Asian giant has been careful to operate below the threshold of war.

Others believe the disappearances are unlikely to have a long-term impact on the stability of Xi’s leadership.

None of the commandos have been attacked so far is part of your inner circlesaid Neil Thomas, an expert on Chinese elite politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

What most observers agree on is that these incidents highlight the opacity of the Chinese system.

“This further raises doubts about the continuity of policy implementation and the credibility of any labor-level promises or guarantees,” Chong said.

As a last resort, the disappearance of these officials have fueled concerns. (JO)