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Peruvian exports would grow 1.9% in 2024 despite risk factors, according to Adex

Peruvian exports would grow 1.9% in 2024 despite risk factors, according to Adex

Peruvian exports would close 2024 with a growth of 1.9%, despite the existence of risks on the global and national stageaccording to projections by the head of Economic Studies and Commercial Intelligence of the Global Economy and Business Research Center of the CIEN-ADEX Exporters Association, Gabriel Arrieta Padilla.

Shipments achieved a record in 2022, advancing 4.5%; However, in 2023 they would fall -1.3%, but the situation would vary slightly in 2024, said Arrieta during his presentation at the II Diplomatic Winter Export Meeting ‘Current panorama and projections 2023-2024’.

“Next year national shipments would total US$64,064 million, of which US$44,196 million would be traditional and US$19,868 million non-traditional. Non-traditional fishing and aquaculture would increase 18%, but traditional fishing would fall -30.9%,” he pointed out.

The risks that would affect the growth results of the Peruvian economy in 2023 and 2024 are the impact of climate phenomena such as El Niño Costero and the El Niño Global Phenomenon (second half of 2023 and first quarter of 2024); as well as possible social protests that would cause the closure of roads, airports, damage to public and private property and the stoppage of production.

Risk factors on a global scale

Arrieta also warned of the stagnation of the world economy in 2023 and 2024, years in which it would grow 3% on average, 0.5% less compared to 2022 (3.5%). The 2 main markets of national supply: China and the US, would close this year at 5.2% and 1.8%, respectively; However, in 2024 the rates would be 4.5% and 1%.

A different situation would be observed in the Eurozone and Latin America and the Caribbean, which after experiencing rates of 0.9% and 1.9% this year, respectively, would achieve an increase of 1.5% and 2.2% in the 2024.

In this way, the main risk factors on the global stage would be the slowdown of the main trading partners, the challenge in reducing the inflation rate and possible increases in interest rates, the application of non-tariff measures, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and problems on international transport routes.

“An example is what happens in the Panama Canalwhich has an impact on the increase in the costs of exporting companies and, consequently, on their competitiveness,” he commented.

Source: Larepublica

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