Short-term expectations remain pessimistic

In August, most business expectations indicators continued to recover compared to the results of the previous month, but without dissipating pessimism, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), since the three-month estimates are still predominantly negative , that is, they are placed below the threshold of 50 points.

Businessmen’s expectations regarding the Peruvian economy fell from 45 to 44 points. Regarding the sector in which they operate, they advanced from 45 to 47 points and, regarding the situation of the company, the corporations surveyed by the BCRP They raised their three-month expectations from 49 to 50 points.

In this same period, product demand expectations reached 53 points; Meanwhile, the company’s personnel hiring and investment indicators achieved 47 points each.

In general terms, only 7 of the 18 indicators are in the optimistic range – 6 referring to the long term – (see infographic).

Pessimism and hope

Economist Juan Carlos Odar highlights that short-term expectations experienced a marked drop in December of last year and have not yet achieved a complete recovery. However, he emphasizes that these negative results persist since the crisis triggered by COVID-19.

“After the pandemic, conditions at the local level have greatly deteriorated and that is why it is also more difficult for expectations to improve,” he commented.

For his part, Daniel Hermoza, director of Mypes Unidas del Perú, considers that BCRP data reveals that 2023 is “another lost year” for mypes. “This economic stagnation carries the risk of increased corporate debt and rising defaults due to lack of economic growth,” he said.

However, he highlighted that today the Government is experiencing a consolidation phase and has reinforced its commitment to both the political and business sectors through the new changes in the cabinet, which could generate a more favorable outlook for MSEs.