“The global battery supply chain could experience a lithium shortage again later this decade, as supply growth fails to keep up with demand growth,” Susan Zou, Vice President of Rystad Energy, said in an interview. According to her, lithium mines will increase by 30 percent. and 40 percent year-on-year in 2023 and 2024, but that’s not enough. Similar forecasts are made by BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, which predicts a shortage of lithium supplies by 2025.
Lithium shortages in the next few years?
In the aforementioned report, which describes CNBC, the thesis was put forward that deficits result from the growing demand for lithium, exceeding their supply capacity. In the years 2023-2032, this demand is expected to increase by 20.4 percent. And we are talking only about lithium used in the production of electric cars, and this element is also used in the production of laptops, tablets, vacuum cleaners and drones. Meanwhile, deliveries to China may increase by only 6% in real terms during this time.
– We believe in a shortage in the lithium industry. Of course, we forecast an increase in supply, but demand is expected to grow at a much faster pace – said Corinne Blanchard, research director for lithium and clean technology at Deutsche Bank, quoted by CNBC. This is confirmed by data from various sources. The World Economic Forum predicts that global demand will exceed 3 million tonnes by 2030. Even Blanchard’s rather optimistic assumptions assume a “modest deficit” by 2025 of around 40,000-60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, but he forecasts a wider deficit of 768,000 tonnes by the end of 2030.
– Over the next few years, while lithium supply may be sufficient at a global level, regional supply imbalances are inevitable Zou said. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 13.8 million in 2023, but then soar to over 30 million by 2030. To meet this demand, lithium is needed, the price of which, if unable to keep up with demand, is likely to skyrocket.
Why is lithium so important?
Konrad Nowacki from the portal explained that “Lithium is now a ‘must have’ in the production of electric vehicles – it is found in the batteries that power themHe pointed out, however, that deposits of this element are not inexhaustible. They amount to about 22 million tons. Therefore, in the long run, the industry cannot rely on this element and should try to limit its use. indicates that technological advances in the recycling, use and extraction of lithium will be a determining factor in whether the transport of the future will be based on “- he predicted.
Source: Gazeta
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