Benedict Taurus *

@Latino America21

Until now, El Salvador has been known abroad mainly for its civil war and ruthless gangs. In recent years, it has not exported much more than migrants. But now a political experiment is taking place that could give the country a “soft power” in the world it never had before.

The experiment was started by President Nayib Bukele using what is called bukeleism. Although it is known as an ‘-ism’, it is not a political ideology: rather it is a political method. It has become very popular in your country and politicians in other countries are trying to copy it. In fact, this method may prove more important for understanding Latin American politics than the traditional right-left axis. And maybe it can also generate influence outside of Latin America.

The method is simple and at the same time technically advanced. It is not about visions of social development with objectives, starting points and plans. The guiding principle is to maintain and strengthen the power of President Nayib Bukele and his inner circle, ensuring that he maintains his strong popularity at all times.

Bukelismo incorporates strategies of Latin American authoritarian populists, from Hugo Chávez to Jair Bolsonaro, and has traits of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Rodrigo Duterte. At the same time, bukelismo has developed much more advanced communication strategies and has taken the world of virtual media further than any other. There, the bunch of “nayibeliebers” (inspired by Justin Bieber’s “beliebers”) are fed with finely polished messages that describe a cool, youthful, modern, humorous and relaxed Bukele that appeals to a young population. Of them, many stand with one leg in the United States and the other in El Salvador.

Since the civil war, the annual average murder rate in El Salvador has been around 4,000. However, last year there were 496 homicides and the trend continues to fall. Extortion cases have been reduced by 70% to 90% (depending on the area) and people are back on the streets, children and youth are playing football, small businesses are resurfacing and the city center is buzzing with life. Salvadorans thank Bukele for their new found peace and freedom.

How did you achieve it? The method can be described in four points that go much further than fighting crime.

First, power is centralized. Bukele has seized control of both the National Assembly and the judiciary by breaking the rules and gaining support in midterm elections. Neither ministers nor mayors of Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party are allowed to have a direct dialogue with businessmen or other political actors. It all depends on him and his three brothers. Budgets are being ignored and more and more laws are being passed that give the president direct control over spending while ignoring international conventions and human rights. In this way, the president has ensured almost total freedom of action.

Second, power is monopolized. Anyone who challenges Bukele’s power risks becoming the target of smear campaigns from an army of media consultants and trolls. And instead of hiring workers from El Salvador, it has hired Venezuelan “political mercenaries.” Bukele will seek re-election in 2024, despite the fact that doing so is prohibited by the constitution and more than 90% of Salvadorans say they will vote for him.

Third, any social organization can be attacked. NGOs are often referred to as ‘foreign intervention fronts’ by the government. These measures are not new, but what makes bukelismo special is the fourth element: management based on monitoring advice.

Bukelismo reigns by popularity by constantly following the opinions of Salvadorans, both those living in El Salvador and those living in the United States, who have the right to vote. The communication strategy is continuously adjusted based on trends in social networks and opinion polls. Securing public support and improving El Salvador’s image abroad are the central objectives.

Bukele introduced the bitcoins as a compulsory means of payment in 2021 and this should be understood as part of that image construction. He bitcoins It has two central functions for bukelismo. First, it has given El Salvador a new image among cryptocurrency and technology enthusiasts, putting the country on the map and tourism starting to recover after years of decline. Second, the bitcoins It gives Bukele himself, the government and the wrongdoers a way to move money outside of institutional control. He bitcoins It has become a favored money laundering mechanism, but it is also used by migrants to send money home from the United States, although it does not apply to local businesses. Therefore, the bitcoinswhile it doesn’t really work as currency, it also doesn’t create reasons for people to oppose it.

With growing popularity and control over all institutions, Bukele was able to launch a major offensive against gangs last year. This came after 87 people died over a weekend in March, breaking a likely pact with Bukele. Then a state of emergency was declared.

With no limits to the power of the police and military, he began a campaign of mass arrests the world has hardly seen. As of March 2023, 64,700 people are incarcerated and the number of detainees in prisons has risen to almost 100,000 people. El Salvador now has the highest number of inmates per 100,000 people in the world, and Bukele recently inaugurated the country’s new giant prison with a capacity of 40,000 people.

The dark side is that many innocent people have been arrested. In poor neighborhoods it has become common for men, especially young men, to be imprisoned despite not having been a gang member. Although Bukele has so far pardoned 3,745 innocent convicts, the number of prisoners without rights or opportunities to communicate with their families is much higher.

For now, most Salvadorans accept the argument that irregular incarcerations are “collateral damage.” However, some wonder how long they can keep 2% of the population in prison. The economy is in bad shape and poverty is on the rise. Still, Bukele’s popularity seems to continue to grow. His party already has offices in Guatemala and Honduras, and politicians interested in his strategy are appearing in the region. The question is whether the strategy is reproducible.

El Salvador has some special circumstances that allowed it to be controlled by bukelismo so quickly. It is a small country that was threatened by hierarchical gangs that could be negotiated and whose members were relatively easy to identify because of tattoos and clothing. Remittances from the US, which make up about 25% of the economy and provide breathing space for the poorest, reduce the impact of events unlike what happens in other countries.

But the main factor for El Salvador to become a country of “nayibeliebers” was an insecure and exhausted people who had lost faith in politicians and institutions and used many social networks. Unfortunately, El Salvador has a lot in common with too many countries, so bukelismo could quickly become an export to watch out for. (OR)

Benedicte Bull is a political scientist. Professor at the Center for Development and Environment at the University of Oslo. Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Nordic Institute for Latin American Studies at Stockholm University. Specialized in elites and political economy.