The “Bukele Effect”: The Controversial State of Emergency in place in Honduras to fight crime (and how it affects the situation in El Salvador)

On the night of March 6, nine bullet-riddled bodies were found in the Honduran community of El Portillo de la Mora. Only one person survived. According to the police, the victims were ambushed and executed by criminals.

That was the ninth massacre of the year in Honduras and the trigger for the president Xiomara Castro exploded against the Minister of Security.

“Everything they asked me, I solved. National Control of Penitentiary Centers, Transfer of the Anti-Maras Force, Directorate of Investigation and Intelligence, Exception status and expansions in more than 60% of the national territory… It is not possible that we are attacked by organized crime in continuous massacres and femicides,” he wrote on Twitter.

Honduras has been in a state of emergency since December 6 that covers more than half of its territory and limits citizens’ rights to face crime.

Analysts consulted by BBC Mundo assure that it is a measure resulting from the “Bukele effect”, a product of the Salvadoran president’s war against the gangs.

El Salvador spent a year in one questions about the exceptional regime by human rights groups, but applauded by many Salvadorans for reducing crime and homicides, according to government records.

In neighboring Honduras, violence has been one of Castro’s challenges since he took office.

The country recorded its lowest homicide rate in 16 years in 2022 at 35 per 100,000 residents, but human rights groups and analysts question the tenability of constitutional restrictions and warn of the consequences of the Salvadoran experience.

extended state of exception

Honduras has extended its state of emergency twice, prompting a call for attention from the United Nations in late February, asking to avoid “prolonged use” of it.

The state of emergency is in effect until April 20 and covers 235 of the country’s 298 municipalities, including the capital Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, the most populous cities.

The Washington Office for Latin American Affairs (Wola, for its acronym in English) reminds that this regime suspends constitutional rights such as freedom of movement, the right of association and assembly, and the inviolability of the home.

The police say that these measures have made it possible to “hit”. criminal structures that have profited from the Honduran population through extortion”.

The latter crime has been on the rise in Honduras in recent years, with hundreds dead and small and medium-sized businesses hit the wall.

According to authorities, the state of emergency has also made it possible to identify and apprehend gang members who profit from other crimes such as arms and drug trafficking, car theft, feminicide and money laundering.

Encrypt police data in more than 4,200 those arrested for multiple crimes. They also report the seizure of more than 800 firearms, 80 kilograms of cocaine and 1,300 kilograms of marijuana.

Eugenio Sosa, of the National Institute of Statistics of Honduras, asks “to see if other academic and civil society organizations are doing alternative monitoring.”

“It’s healthy that there are other sources of official data,” he told BBC Mundo.

The National Commissioner for Human Rights in Honduras (CONADEH) has pointed to “inconsistencies in the data presented by the government” and recommended not extending the state of emergency for failing to meet “international human rights standards”.

The “Bukele Effect”

El Salvador and Honduras share a border and challenges. They have one of the highest murder rates in the world and their residents suffer from one endemic insecurity.

Now they also share this “Bukele model” of crime fighting.

“The reduction in murders and extortions,” as reported by the Salvadoran government, “has led governments like Honduras to try to imitate Bukele,” Leonardo Pineda, an analyst and social researcher, told BBC Mundo.

It is an observation shared by centers such as WOLA, which warn against the “normalization” of this method that uses public power and limits rights.

“In these populations fed up with violence, the Bukele model generates sympathy and could become a trend that politicians are excited to adopt,” says Sosa.

Honduran analysts point to a difference in how it is applied in both countries.

Sosa believes that the extension of the state of emergency in Honduras is a sign of this violence is not controlled.

“I also see an attempt to balance the preservation of these states of exception and respect for human rights,” says the expert.

“It’s not a scorched country by the police in neighborhoods and homes like in El Salvador,” Sosa added, although the Honduran media reported alleged arbitrary detentions and irregularities in judicial proceedings.

Pineda warns that many measures seem “more propaganda than action” and that many communities are not feeling the effects.

“The extortion has not stopped, with the exception of some communities in which the gangs have apparently decided to stop themselves so as not to heat up the areas further,” Pineda confirms.

Both analysts point out that the police are “weaker” and do not receive as open support from the military as in El Salvador.

Collateral damage

Pineda says Bukele’s crackdown is causing a “migration of gang members from El Salvador to other countries in the region and it’s starting to be noticed in Honduras.”

“Most criminologists agree that when a country attacks like Bukele and its other neighbors have more flexibility, they can become a haven and an extension” of criminal groups, Sosa explains.

Honduran authorities have also observed “a mutation” of criminal structures moving from urban to rural areas in municipalities without a state of emergency.

Although the authorities speak of a decrease in the number of murders, Honduras is experiencing bloody weeks. There have been nine massacres in the first two months of 2023, the motives of which are unclear.

After the last one that took place at the beginning of March, Castro issued an ultimatum to the Secretary of Security to stop this latest escalation of violence despite the state of emergency.

The challenge of attacking the carrot

The major criticism of the “Bukele model” is the lack of a plan beyond the emergency measures.

“What will happen if these repressive actions against human rights are suspended if the roots are not attacked?” Pineda wonders.

Ana María Méndez-Dardón, director of Central America at Wola, recalls that “curtailing constitutional rights poses a huge risk of human rights violations, such as arbitrary arrest and abuse of authority.”

These are just some of the criticisms of Bukele’s measures, in addition to the fact that the issue has not been resolved. overcrowding in Salvadoran prisons, not even with the recent construction of a mega prison.

In Honduras, Sosa mentions that these measures should be combined with “the reduction of inequality, poverty and the realignment of institutions to reduce organized crime at a very high level”.

“And the latter cannot be solved simply by extraditing the former president,” says Sosa, referring to Juan Orlando Hernández, Castro’s predecessor and extradited to the United States, where he will be tried for alleged drug trafficking and possession of firearms.