Chinese population declines for first time in more than 60 years

The population of China it fell last year for the first time in more than six decades, according to official figures released Tuesday, pointing to a demographic crisis in the world’s most populous country.

“By the end of 2022, the national population was 1,411.75 million,” reported the National Statistics Office (ONE) of Beijing, specifying that it is “a decrease of 0.85 million since the end of 2021”.

The ONE specified that the number of births was 9.56 million and 10.41 million deaths were registered.

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The country’s birth rate has fallen to historic levels due to an aging population, an accelerating decline that analysts say could hurt economic growth and put pressure on public finances.

The last time China’s population declined was in the 1960s, when the country faced the worst famine in its modern history, caused by China’s agricultural policy. Mao Zedong called the Great Leap Forward.

China in 2016 lifted its strict one-child policy, imposed in the 1980s due to fears of overpopulation, and in 2021 began allowing couples to have three children.

But those authorizations failed to stem the demographic decline.

“Who still dares to have children? The unemployment rate is high (among young people), COVID-19 destroyed everything”a man in his 30s from Shanghai told AFP.

Bonuses for children

“The population will surely continue to decline in the coming years,” anticipated Zhiwei Zhang, of Pinpoint Asset management.

“China will not be able to depend on the demographic dividend as a structural driver of economic growth”narrowed the expert. “Economic growth will need to depend more on productivity growth, which is driven by government policies.”

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News of the population decline quickly trended on Chinese social media, with some people expressing fear for the future of the country.

“Without children, the State and the nation have no future”, wrote a user of the social network Weibo, a Chinese version of Twitter.

“Having children is a social responsibility”, pointed out a well-known patriotic “influencer” on Weibo.

Given these figures, many local authorities launched measures to encourage couples to have children.

For example, the southern megacity of Shenzhen offers a birth bonus and a monthly allowance until the child turns three.

A couple having their first baby automatically receives 3,000 yuan ($444), and the figure rises to 10,000 yuan ($1,480) for the third child.

The eastern city of Jinan began paying a monthly allowance of 600 yuan for couples having a second child on Jan. 1.

“small families”

The Chinese population is also “getting used to small families due to decades of one-child policy”Xiujian Peng, a researcher at the University of Victoria, Australia, told AFP.

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“The Chinese government must find effective policies to promote fertility, otherwise the fertility level will continue to fall,” added.

Independent demographer He Yafu also points to the “decline in the number of women of childbearing age, which fell by five million per year between 2016 and 2021″as a consequence of the aging of the population.

The Chinese population could decline 1.1% on average annually, according to a study by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

China could have less than 587 million inhabitants by the year 2100, less than half today, according to the most pessimistic projections of that team of demographers.

According to the UN, India could displace China as the world’s most populous country this year.

“A shrinking and aging population will be a real concern for China”Peng warned.

“It will have a profound impact on the Chinese economy from the present to the 2100s,” added.

Source: AFP