The Chinese rocket, without control: where could it fall? Is Spain at risk of impact?

The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA, for its acronym in English) has issued a report early this morning in which it reports that the passage of the Chinese rocket through the atmosphere could affect the airspace of southern Europefrom Portugal to Cyprus.

Specifically, the document indicates that it could affect Santa María and Lisboa (Portugal), Canary Islands, Madrid and Barcelona (Spain), Marseille (France)Rome and Brindisi (Italy), Athens (Greece) and Nicosia (Cyprus).

According to the agency, debris from the “large space object” Rocket Long March 5B, launched on October 31 and having an estimated mass of between 17 and 23 tons, enter the atmosphere in an “uncontrolled” way throughout today. The time frame detailed by the EASA is between 9:03 and 19:37, mainland Spain time.

However, as it is a reentry “uncontrolled” it is difficult to accurately predict the trajectory of the debris and where the pieces will fall, so the detailed prediction could only be known a few hours before the drop.

EASA notes that, due to its mass, the object is one of the largest pieces of debris to have re-entered in the atmosphere in recent years, so “it deserves careful monitoring”.

For all these reasons, the European agency recommends the authorities of the Member States to implement and notify restrictions in the airspace in a space between 70 and 120 kilometers on each side of the estimated trajectory of the object. At the moment, in Spain, only air traffic in Catalonia and the Balearic Islands has been affected this morning and for 40 minutes.