70% of the population of several countries will need air conditioning due to heat waves, according to a study

A team of researchers from the Harvard China Project, based at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, has estimated that at least 70% of the population in several countries will need air conditioning in 2050 if the pace of emissions continues to rise, and that figure will be even higher in equatorial countries like India and Indonesia. The research, published in the scientific journal ‘Energy and Buildings’, has calculated the future demand for air conditioning as days of extreme heat increase around the world.

The team discovered a huge gap between current air conditioning capacity and what will be needed in 2050 to save lives, especially in low-income and developing countries. Even if the world meets the emission thresholds set out in the Paris Climate Agreements, an average of 40 to 50% of the population in many of the hottest countries in the world it will still need air conditioning, according to the statistical models carried out by this work. “Regardless of emissions trajectories, a massive increase in air conditioning or other space cooling options is needed for billions of people so that they are not subjected to these extreme temperatures for the rest of their lives,” he says. Peter Sherman, first author of the article.

The researchers specifically studied days when the combination of heat and humidity, measured by the so-called simplified wet bulb temperature, could kill even young and healthy people in a matter of hours. These extreme events can occur when temperatures are high enough or when humidity is high enough to prevent perspiration from cooling the body. “While we focused on days where the simplified wet-bulb temperature was above a threshold where temperatures are life-threatening for most people, wet-bulb temperatures below that threshold can still be really uncomfortable.” and dangerous enough to require air conditioning, especially for vulnerable populations.

Therefore, it is likely that this is an underestimate of the amount of air conditioning that people will need in the futureSherman says. The team looked at two futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions rise significantly above the current average, and an intermediate future in which emissions are reduced, but not cut entirely. future with high emissions, the research team estimated that 99% of the urban population in India and Indonesia will need air conditioning.In Germany, a country with a historically mild climate, the researchers calculated that up to 92% of the population will need air conditioning. air conditioning in cases of extreme heat.

In United States, about 96% of the population will need air conditioning. High-income countries like the United States are better prepared for even the harshest future. Currently, about 90% of the US population has access to air conditioning, compared to 9% in Indonesia and only 5% in India. Even if emissions are reduced, India and Indonesia will still need air conditioning for 92% and 96% of their urban population, respectively, according to this study. Extreme heat waves are already straining power grids around the world and the massive increase in demand for air conditioning could push current systems to their limits.

In the United States, for example, air conditioning already accounts for more than 70 percent of peak electricity demand residential on days of extreme heat in some states. “If the demand for air conditioning increases, this also has a big impact on the electricity grid. It puts a strain on the network because everyone is going to use air conditioning at the same time, which affects the peak demand for electricity,” he says. Sherman. Other strategies to moderate the increase in electricity demand are dehumidifiers, which consume much less energy than air conditioning. Whatever the solution, it is clear that extreme heat is not just a problem for future generations. “It’s a problem right now,” Sherman concludes.