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The decision of the Bank of Russia on the key rate, expected on Friday, will not affect the dollar, since it has already set its sights on the psychologically significant support level of 100 rubles, experts interviewed by RIA Novosti believe.
In their opinion, the influence of the decision and comments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the ruble exchange rate has weakened in the current geopolitical conditions, and the regulator’s previous emergency actions have ensured local financial stability, PRIME reports.
Factors in favor of strengthening the ruble to the level of 100 rubles. for the dollar are not currently associated with the Central Bank meeting, Yuri Kravchenko from Veles Capital believes. “Among them is an increased demand for ruble liquidity on the part of major players in the financial market; gradual contraction of imports; restrictions on the movement of the currency, as well as progress in a peaceful settlement, ”he is convinced.
On February 28, at an emergency meeting of the Board of Directors, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate from 9.5% immediately to 20%, which became its new historical maximum. A regular meeting of the regulator’s board of directors will take place today, at which the rate is likely to be maintained, most experts predict.
By raising the key rate to 20% per annum on February 28, the Central Bank used this tool, among other things, to protect the exchange rate of the Russian currency, said Rinat Kutuev from Bank Saint Petersburg.
The influence of the interest rate on the ruble exchange rate is now extremely limited due to the existing restrictions on the whole list of currency transactions for residents and the actual absence of non-residents, Dmitry Polevoy from Lokoinvest believes.
The impact of the rhetoric of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the exchange rates of the ruble is now secondary, so the statements of the regulator are unlikely to cause a reaction in the foreign exchange market, adds Vladimir Evstifeev from Zenit Bank.
For her part, Elena Mikhailova, head of the analytics and research department at Accent Capital, stated that the Russian national currency in March overcame the historical mark of 120 rubles. for the US dollar, after which this week trading shows the strengthening of the ruble.
Source: Rosbalt
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