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Russian stock analyst Stepan Demura in his Telegram channel named the main announced sanctions against Russia, which, in his opinion, will have the strongest impact on the economy and finances of the Russian Federation.
According to the expert, first of all, concerns are caused by “blocking sanctions on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.” “These sanctions will lead to the freezing of the most liquid part of the gold reserves (gold and foreign exchange, or international, reserves – ed.). The ability of the Central Bank to support the ruble will significantly decrease. The ruble will go into free fall. I have said many times that the ruble does not have a bottom, we are invited to make sure of this, ”Demura said.
He also drew attention to “a set of sanctions to ban the supply of technological goods and services to the Russian Federation.” “It is important for me not to ban the supply of smartphones, appliances and other things for private use. I’m talking about technologies, spare parts, consumables, software, chips and other things that are used to operate the machine park, the fleet of machines and equipment in the industry of the Russian Federation. This will not yet affect oil and gas production and equipment for the production of raw materials (in this direction, the bans will be purely nominal), this will affect the entire complex of processing industries. Approximately 70% is a fleet of machine tools, machines and equipment produced by countries that impose sanctions. The vast majority of production can stop on the horizon of six months, ”the analyst warns.
In addition, “air sanctions” are also dangerous. “The supply of spare parts and maintenance is prohibited for 90% of the civilian fleet. This paralyzes civilian air travel. The industry and many related industries will disappear. Production and commodity chains in almost all industries will be seriously disrupted, ”the expert suggests.
He also drew attention to “blocking sanctions on a number of large banks.” “The activity of these banks will be greatly complicated. Part of the assets will be lost. Sberbank has not yet been included in this type of sanctions. But the intentions and directions of the strike are important. It is clearly shown that any financial institution, including Sberbank, can be included in the SDN list,” states Demura.
In addition, he adds, the “disconnection from (the international interbank system) SWIFT of banks that are subject to blocking sanctions” will also seriously affect. “As long as the entire banking system is not disconnected from SWIFT, this measure, in my opinion, is not dramatic, since banks disconnected from SWIFT will be able to use the infrastructure of other banks. More important, as in the paragraph above, is the intention and direction of the blow. It is obvious that this measure is now likely to apply to the entire banking system if the conflict develops,” the analyst admits.
Recall, on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin made an emergency appeal to the Russians and announced a special military operation in the Donbass. In his speech, he stated that “circumstances require decisive action from Russia” and stressed that “Russia will not allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons.”
In response to Russia’s actions, Western countries (USA, Canada, European Union, Great Britain, Japan) announced new, tougher sanctions against the Russian Federation, including financial and economic ones.
Sanctions, in particular, hit Russian banks, including Sberbank, VTB, Novikombank, FC Otkritie and Sovcombank.
Later, the EU countries and the United States agreed to disconnect Russian banks that fell under sanctions from the international system of interbank transactions and information exchange SWIFT. In addition, it was decided to freeze the assets of the Bank of Russia, which will create difficulties for its use of international reserves. EU countries also pledged to take steps to limit the sale of citizenship — the so-called “golden passports” that allow wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government to become citizens of EU states and access their financial systems.
You can follow the chronicle of events around Ukraine on February 27 here.
Source: Rosbalt
Tristin is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his in-depth and engaging writing on sports. He currently works as a writer at 247 News Agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the sports industry.
