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What is happening today in Ukraine leads to the fact that in the next few hours or days, Russian and Belarusian troops will be at the borders of NATO. This was stated in an interview with DW by a security expert from the Institute for the Study of Peace and Security Policy in Hamburg, Ulrich Kühn.
According to the expert, this means the risk of unintentional escalation.
He recalled that US President Joe Biden and other leaders of NATO countries stressed that they would not send alliance troops to Ukraine. At the same time, there were statements by Western figures that in the event of an invasion of the Russian Federation, weapons would be supplied to Ukraine, that Ukrainian military personnel would be trained on the territory of NATO countries, and then sent to Ukraine.
“And against this background, I see a very real threat of military escalation in relations between NATO and Russia in the coming days, weeks and months,” Kuhn said.
He also named three possible scenarios.
According to the first scenario, Russian aircraft may accidentally violate the airspace of NATO countries.
“This has happened more than once in the past – intentionally or unintentionally, but not in the conditions of the ongoing war. In this case, NATO aircraft usually take to the air and escort the invading aircraft from their airspace. And I’m not sure that in the current tense situation, Russian pilots will respond adequately. It is possible that they will take such an escort for hostile actions, which will lead to an air battle, ”said Kuhn.
Another possible scenario suggests the following: the governments of some Western countries are proposing to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine, including heavy ones.
“But they have to be brought there somehow. It will not work by air, because Russia dominates there. This means that it will be necessary to try to deliver weapons to Ukraine by land across the border, which, most likely, very soon can be controlled by Russia. Clashes may also occur there if the Russian side tries to prevent these deliveries, the expert noted. – Finally, the third scenario is the training of Ukrainian soldiers or militias in the coming weeks, months or even years. After all, they also need to be transported across the border. In such cases, armed clashes between Russian and NATO military personnel may also arise.”
At the same time, he believes that Russia will not deliberately escalate the conflict with NATO.
Source: Rosbalt
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