The expert predicted which sectors of the Russian Federation will be hit hardest by the new sanctions of the West – Rosbalt

Sanctions against Russia, which are imposed by Western countries due to the military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine since February 24, can have a rather negative impact on the Russian economy, and, above all, high-tech industries will suffer. This was stated in an interview with the PRIME agency by Vladimir Grigoriev, Associate Professor of the Institute of World Economy and Law of the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia.

According to him, the de-industrialization of modern Russia, which took place in the “dashing 90s” and in the early 2000s, led to a very strong dependence on imports. Suffice it to recall the Super Jet, a Russian aircraft that Russia cannot supply to Iran, because it is equipped with American equipment, the analogues of which the Russian Federation does not produce. Therefore, sanctions in this area can be very painful, the expert pointed out.

“Sanctions may affect the oil and gas sector. Of course, Western Europe depends on Russian energy sources, but there is an unpleasant fact: the United States is increasing gas exports to Europe. Of course, they are unlikely to completely replace Russian gas, but they can reduce dependence on it. And, consequently, to achieve a drop in Russia’s income from energy exports,” Grigoriev believes.

For the first time, in his opinion, sanctions could seriously hit the Russian financial sector. A possible disconnection from the international system of interbank transactions SWIFT is now closer to reality than ever. In addition to SWIFT, there are Visa and MasterCard – payment systems whose cards are used by tens of millions of Russians. In Russia, of course, they will work, but outside of it they can simply be turned off. It will be quite painful.

“Sanctions against Russian public debt will be expanded – Europe will join the United States. Non-residents, in principle, will drastically reduce their presence on the Russian stock market. This will affect not only the national debt, but also the stock market. The capitalization of Russian companies will decrease,” the expert believes.

In his opinion, today Russia is better prepared for tough sanctions than in 2014, but it will not be easy to postpone them. In the banking sector, for example, if the switch-off from SWIFT becomes a reality, a new settlement and payment model will have to be created, most likely through Chinese banks. It will be less convenient than now and, of course, more expensive.

“Perhaps these features – the complexity and increased cost of everything – will be the main consequences of the new sanctions,” Grigoriev is convinced.