Analysts predicted an increase in the average mortgage rate to 11.5%

Economic industry experts predict that against the backdrop of rising inflation, the Central Bank at the next meeting of the Board of Directors will raise the key rate from 8.5% to 9.5%. In this case, this will be the eighth rate increase since March 2021.

“Following the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, we are also seeing an increase in mortgage rates, including this February. Moreover, I assume that in 2022 the average mortgage rate on the Moscow real estate market will rise to the level of 11.5%,” said Evgeny Parfenyuk, head of the mortgage lending department at NDV Real Estate Supermarket.

As a result, according to the expert, the availability of housing loans will worsen and the share of transactions involving mortgages is likely to decline compared to 2021. In this case, developers will have to continue to offer buyers favorable conditions to stimulate demand: subsidized mortgage rates, discounts, installment programs, Parfeniuk said.

In anticipation of a possible increase in the key rate, the number of requests for advice on mortgages in the company increased. “Some buyers have not yet chosen a property for themselves, but are in a hurry to get approval for a loan in order to fix the interest rate for a certain period,” noted NDV Real Estate Supermarket.

According to the statistics of the company’s mortgage lending department, in January 2022, the number of mortgage transactions increased by 16% compared to January 2021.

“If we compare the January figures with December, it sank by 50%. However, this is a common situation for the real estate market: in December, before the next year, buyers are much more active, including rushing to profitably invest in the purchase of apartments if they are expected to rise in price. In addition, you need to take into account the January holidays, during which many market players take a break,” the company noted.