Economist Portansky: We will switch to artificial meat when it is much cheaper than natural

Since, according to various estimates, from 13 to 20% of all carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, livestock farming will also be subject to restrictions that apply to other industries harmful to the environment and climate, according to a professor in the Department of World Economy at the Higher School of Economics, a leading researcher at the Institute of Global Economics. Economics and International Relations RAS Alexey Portansky.

In particular, the EU is actively discussing the idea of ​​introducing a new tax on meat, which would bring the diet of Western countries in line with the goals of protecting the environment and climate. Scientists from the Technical University of Berlin, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Oxford University conducted a study and concluded that in order to reduce the harm that animal husbandry causes to the environment, retail prices for meat should be higher: by 35-56% for beef, 25 % – for poultry, 19% – lamb and pork. Members of a specialized government commission in Germany calculated that a kilogram of beef should cost not 14 euros, as it is now, but 80 euros. Also in the EU are discussing a directive reduction in the number of cattle and other restrictions.

According to Portansky, over time, Western trends will also affect Russia. “Green transition” will primarily affect the producers of metal products, electricity, cement, fertilizers, said the interlocutor of “Rosbalt”. “But the time will come when the changes will also affect agriculture. First of all, animal husbandry. We are exporters of chicken, pork. The influence of European “green” trends will primarily affect exports,” the expert noted.

According to him, we can talk about the introduction of additional environmental requirements or a border tax. “With regard to livestock products, some restrictions will also be introduced, for sure. Everything goes to this, ”the expert believes.

Portansky believes that participating countries should be guided by the provisions of the 2015 Paris climate agreement. “The EU already has very specific commitments to reduce emissions. Since livestock accounts for 13 to 20% of carbon emissions, according to various estimates, products will also be subject to some kind of restrictions.

The application of stringent environmental requirements to livestock farms will lead to increased costs and, as a result, to higher prices for their products, both for export and for the domestic market. Ultimately, this will lead to equalization of the prices of natural and artificial meat. Plus, artificial meat production technologies will be improved, which will also work to reduce the cost of these products. Ultimately, we will switch to artificial meat, which will be much cheaper than natural,” Portansky believes.

When all these changes become noticeable, it is difficult to say, the expert noted. “With regard to the border carbon tax, which will affect hazardous industries, this is a matter for the next few years. Relatively speaking, these measures will be announced in 2023 and will come into effect in 2026. Here the dates are more or less clear. As for livestock products, it is very difficult to name the dates. In my opinion, this will not happen until the next decade, ”the source said.