Between the economic crisis, the rise in crime and citizen discontent, the threats that President Lasso faces after five months of being in power

According to surveys, he has lost a lot of citizen support, since more than 70% of the sympathy he had at the beginning of his administration, polls have made him lose 30 points.

An economic crisis inherited by its predecessor, the Pandora papers scandal that splashes it, the galloping insecurity in the streets and the growing discontent of social groups combine a kind of time bomb that the president of Ecuador, Guillermo Lasso, tries to defuse .

With just five months in power, Lasso has begun to suffer the rigor of the mandate, especially in the last month, when all the threats appeared together.

The appearance of the so-called Pandora papers, with him as one of those involved, paved the way for the opposition to set its sights on its tax past and on the destination of those investments deposited in tax havens outside its country.

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Lasso denied such an extreme and justified the legality of his operations, although he also admitted that he got rid of “off shore” investments just before an electoral law came into force that prohibits candidates from having such accounts.

In addition, he stressed that between him, the Bank of Guayaquil (of which he owned), the Multibg SA Corporation and the GLM Trust, which are part of his companies, have paid $ 588,864,479.38 in taxes in the country, which which, he says, makes him one of the largest Ecuadorian taxpayers.

Social and security crisis

However, the scandal has been compounded by insecurity on the streets and in prisons, which led him to apply two separate states of exception to try to tackle rampant citizen insecurity and criminality among criminal gangs in prisons.

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Also the management of the economic crisis, inherited by his predecessor, Lenín Moreno, has been a wear and tear for the president who, according to the polls, has lost much of the citizen support, because of the more than 70% of sympathy he had at the beginning of his administration , several polls have made him lose more than 30 points.

The announcement of protest mobilizations against the Government for next week also led the president to issue an unsuspected action that, as he had insisted from the beginning of the exercise, he was not going to take it.

Lasso decided to freeze the price of fuel, one of the main demands of the unions and the powerful indigenous movement.

Guillermo Lasso announces suspension of monthly increases in fuel prices

However, his measure was accompanied by a last increase in the value of fuel, which ended the patience of the social sectors that ratified an action of resistance and mobilization for this Tuesday.

“There is no freeze on the price of fuel. It is naive to think like this. In reality there is an economic ‘package’ that increases the price of diesel by more than 13%. Lasso, with this measure, has actually complied with an IMF conditionality ”, recriminated the economist and professor Pablo Dávalos.

Opportunity creation law

The analyst Dávalos considered that President Lasso will not have enough support in the National Assembly (Parliament) to carry out tax, labor and investment reforms, which already suffered a first setback in the legislative forum, as they were not admitted when they were presented in a single legal proposal.

The president, who is being investigated by a legislative commission for Pandora’s papers, has agreed to once again present his package of amendments to the Assembly separately, meeting the deadlines established in the regulations.

Assembly Technical Unit recommends not qualifying the Organic Law for the Creation of Opportunities

According to Lasso, his proposal, which he calls the Opportunity Creation Law, is essential to achieve the minimum goals that his administration calculates to overcome the economic crisis, fueled by the covid-19 pandemic, and lead the country down the path of recovery.

However, the weakness of the ruling party in the National Assembly could also take its toll on the central administration, which has already faced dark months in the long journey of its term, which will end in 2025.

This is another of the elements that have appeared in recent days, even in the same ruling party that already speaks of the possibility of dissolving the Legislature if it insists on not giving way to the reforms that the Executive requires.

Three work modalities contemplate the project of Law of Creation of Opportunities

For Dávalos, even Lasso’s reluctance to go to the Parliamentary Commission that investigates him for Pandora’s papers contributes to an unprecedented democratic possibility, the so-called “crossed death”, by which the president can dilute the Assembly and convene within the term from one year to new elections.

“The outcome seems inevitable: Either President Lasso closes the Assembly to avoid the investigation of the Pandora papers, and governs by decree law, or the Assembly dismisses him for having breached the law. Apparently there would be no middle ground, “said Dávalos. (I)

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